Monday, February 18, 2008

Who leads off?

The question of who leads off for the Minnesota Twins in 2008 is yet to be answered.

Conventional wisdom says it's someone who has speed, can bunt, and who can get on base. Among those still on the roster from 2007, Joe Mauer has the highest OBP among regulars, at .382, and he scored 62 runs, and stole seven bases. In 2006, when he won the batting title, his OBP was .429. (By the way, Hall of Famer Rod Carew eclipsed that twice in his career, in 1974 at .433 and in 1977, when he batted .388 and had a .449 OBP. Astounding).

Other OBP in 2007: Michael Cuddyer, .356; Michael Redmond, .346; Justin Morneau, .343; and Jason Kubel, .335.

Among the new Twins, Jason Pridie had a .375 OBP for AAA Durham in 245 ab; it was .331 for AA in 279 at bats. Pridie was also good at scoring runs at AAA: he scored 47 times in 245 at bats (19 percent of the time).

Carlos Gomez put up similar numbers, at AAA, .363 OBP, 24 runs scored in 140 AB (17 percent). Gomez can also steal bases: 17 in AAA last year. However, he struggled in the Major Leagues last year, he hit .232 with a .288 OBP. He may need more time in AAA, although he is a speedster on the bases. He had 12 stolen bases in 125 ML AB.

Among the other newcomers, 2B Brendan Harris had an OBP of .343 last year, with 4 stolen bases; Mike Lamb had a .366 OBP, but with no stolen bases; Delmon Young had an OBP of .316 with 10 SB.

Clearly, the choice is between Pridie, Gomez and Mauer. Conventional wisdom might say to give it to the speedster Gomez and let him fly; my inclination is to give it to Pridie. At AA and AAA (combined) Pridie scored 89 runs. Betwen the minor leagues and the majors, Gomex scored 39 runs last year. Mauer scored 62 for the Twins.

Some point to Mauer, and suggest he should be the lead-off hitter. He is our best hitter. He should be in the No. 2 or 3 spot, getting Pridie around the basepaths to score.

Pridie should have the CF job, with Gomez having the fourth OF spot, letting him learn from the likes of Cuddyer and Young.
And Pridie should lead off. Give him the chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues. His record shows he deserves it.

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