It's going to be an uphill battle for Glen Perkins to make the Twins' squad out of Spring Training, after he gave up three runs in one inning in Thursday's 6-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds.
Perkins' ERA after the stint was a stout 27.00. Unless he pitches nearly perfectly for the rest of the spring, it will be hard for him to get his ERA to respectibility.
Perkins had an outside chance to make the team's roster as a starter, but was more likely to be a left-handed relief pitcher. Now it's better than even odds, I would say, that he starts in Rochester.
Ricky Barrett, who had a scant chance to make the roster before Thursday's game, has nearly no chance now. He also gave up three runs, two earned.
Other Twins pitchers fared better: Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Casey Daigle and Julio DePaula each pitched an inning (Baker pitched two) and each gave up no runs. Baker gave up three hits, but no runs.
One Twins loss, the first spring game. Oh well.
At least Francisco Liriano is in camp, and by most reports, throwing well. That's a good sign.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Ex-Span-ding the outfield
Denard Span has ben the heir-apparent to Torii Hunter since he was drafted in 2002. So why did the Twins - when they lost Hunter to free agency - sign one OF and acquire two more speedy CF in trades the offseason?
Maybe because they felt Span is not ready yet, and wanted to have some true competition for the job come spring.
That they have.
Craig Monroe, the outfielder they signed, is more of a bench player. His threat is the homerun, not catching potential home run balls at the fence like Hunter and former Twin Kirby Puckett used to do.
The three potential center fielders are Span, Jason Pridie - acquired from the Rays in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade; and Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.
Lets look at them (2007 Stats from Baseball-Reference.com):
Name Level AB R H RBI BB SO BA OBP SB CF/games RF/Game
Span AAA 487 59 130 55 40 90 .267 .323 25 134 2.69
Pridie AA-AAA 524 89 159 66 36 92 .303 .352 26 101 2.53
Gomez A+-AAA 153 25 42 13 16 27 .275 .355 19 36 2.94
Gomez Mets 125 14 29 12 8 27 .232 .288 12 4 1.00
Monroe Det/ChC 392 53 86 59 26 107 .219 .268 0 7 2.31
Pridie had the most at-bats, the most stolen bases and the highest batting average. Span played the most games in CF. Gomez had the highest Range Factor per game, albeit in 36 AAA games. Gomez probably has the greatest potential, but whether he's ready right now, is a good question. He only played 40 games in CF last year (36+4).
If the Twins are looking for a pure defensive CF, Span and Gomez have the highest range factors. Looking for the most experience at the position? Span and Pridie are tops there. Looking for a pure leadoff hitter? Pridie and Gomez fit the bill with the highest averages and on base percentage.
Yes, Gomez was in the Major Leagues last year, but most of that time he was in elsewhere in the OF; he only spent four games in CF. Monroe spent 7 games there in 2007 - he's been in CF for 77 of his 720 ML games. Monroe has never been a good CF; he just doesn't have the range needed.
One more twist: Span and Pridie are left-handed batters; Monroe and Gomez are righties. If they do equally well in spring training, it's unlikely Pridie and Span would come up together, since both are left handed batters.
So if Monroe can't do the everyday job, it falls between Span, Gomez and Pridie. Pridie has the edge for now, but Gomez will eclipse him when he gets more experience in the field.
My prediction is unchanged. Pridie and Gomez will go north, and come close to platooning in the position. Monroe - if he makes the team, will be on the bench.
And Span will still be chomping at the bit for the Major League CF job.
Maybe because they felt Span is not ready yet, and wanted to have some true competition for the job come spring.
That they have.
Craig Monroe, the outfielder they signed, is more of a bench player. His threat is the homerun, not catching potential home run balls at the fence like Hunter and former Twin Kirby Puckett used to do.
The three potential center fielders are Span, Jason Pridie - acquired from the Rays in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade; and Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.
Lets look at them (2007 Stats from Baseball-Reference.com):
Name Level AB R H RBI BB SO BA OBP SB CF/games RF/Game
Span AAA 487 59 130 55 40 90 .267 .323 25 134 2.69
Pridie AA-AAA 524 89 159 66 36 92 .303 .352 26 101 2.53
Gomez A+-AAA 153 25 42 13 16 27 .275 .355 19 36 2.94
Gomez Mets 125 14 29 12 8 27 .232 .288 12 4 1.00
Monroe Det/ChC 392 53 86 59 26 107 .219 .268 0 7 2.31
Pridie had the most at-bats, the most stolen bases and the highest batting average. Span played the most games in CF. Gomez had the highest Range Factor per game, albeit in 36 AAA games. Gomez probably has the greatest potential, but whether he's ready right now, is a good question. He only played 40 games in CF last year (36+4).
If the Twins are looking for a pure defensive CF, Span and Gomez have the highest range factors. Looking for the most experience at the position? Span and Pridie are tops there. Looking for a pure leadoff hitter? Pridie and Gomez fit the bill with the highest averages and on base percentage.
Yes, Gomez was in the Major Leagues last year, but most of that time he was in elsewhere in the OF; he only spent four games in CF. Monroe spent 7 games there in 2007 - he's been in CF for 77 of his 720 ML games. Monroe has never been a good CF; he just doesn't have the range needed.
One more twist: Span and Pridie are left-handed batters; Monroe and Gomez are righties. If they do equally well in spring training, it's unlikely Pridie and Span would come up together, since both are left handed batters.
So if Monroe can't do the everyday job, it falls between Span, Gomez and Pridie. Pridie has the edge for now, but Gomez will eclipse him when he gets more experience in the field.
My prediction is unchanged. Pridie and Gomez will go north, and come close to platooning in the position. Monroe - if he makes the team, will be on the bench.
And Span will still be chomping at the bit for the Major League CF job.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Who leads off?
The question of who leads off for the Minnesota Twins in 2008 is yet to be answered.
Conventional wisdom says it's someone who has speed, can bunt, and who can get on base. Among those still on the roster from 2007, Joe Mauer has the highest OBP among regulars, at .382, and he scored 62 runs, and stole seven bases. In 2006, when he won the batting title, his OBP was .429. (By the way, Hall of Famer Rod Carew eclipsed that twice in his career, in 1974 at .433 and in 1977, when he batted .388 and had a .449 OBP. Astounding).
Other OBP in 2007: Michael Cuddyer, .356; Michael Redmond, .346; Justin Morneau, .343; and Jason Kubel, .335.
Among the new Twins, Jason Pridie had a .375 OBP for AAA Durham in 245 ab; it was .331 for AA in 279 at bats. Pridie was also good at scoring runs at AAA: he scored 47 times in 245 at bats (19 percent of the time).
Carlos Gomez put up similar numbers, at AAA, .363 OBP, 24 runs scored in 140 AB (17 percent). Gomez can also steal bases: 17 in AAA last year. However, he struggled in the Major Leagues last year, he hit .232 with a .288 OBP. He may need more time in AAA, although he is a speedster on the bases. He had 12 stolen bases in 125 ML AB.
Among the other newcomers, 2B Brendan Harris had an OBP of .343 last year, with 4 stolen bases; Mike Lamb had a .366 OBP, but with no stolen bases; Delmon Young had an OBP of .316 with 10 SB.
Clearly, the choice is between Pridie, Gomez and Mauer. Conventional wisdom might say to give it to the speedster Gomez and let him fly; my inclination is to give it to Pridie. At AA and AAA (combined) Pridie scored 89 runs. Betwen the minor leagues and the majors, Gomex scored 39 runs last year. Mauer scored 62 for the Twins.
Some point to Mauer, and suggest he should be the lead-off hitter. He is our best hitter. He should be in the No. 2 or 3 spot, getting Pridie around the basepaths to score.
Pridie should have the CF job, with Gomez having the fourth OF spot, letting him learn from the likes of Cuddyer and Young.
And Pridie should lead off. Give him the chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues. His record shows he deserves it.
Conventional wisdom says it's someone who has speed, can bunt, and who can get on base. Among those still on the roster from 2007, Joe Mauer has the highest OBP among regulars, at .382, and he scored 62 runs, and stole seven bases. In 2006, when he won the batting title, his OBP was .429. (By the way, Hall of Famer Rod Carew eclipsed that twice in his career, in 1974 at .433 and in 1977, when he batted .388 and had a .449 OBP. Astounding).
Other OBP in 2007: Michael Cuddyer, .356; Michael Redmond, .346; Justin Morneau, .343; and Jason Kubel, .335.
Among the new Twins, Jason Pridie had a .375 OBP for AAA Durham in 245 ab; it was .331 for AA in 279 at bats. Pridie was also good at scoring runs at AAA: he scored 47 times in 245 at bats (19 percent of the time).
Carlos Gomez put up similar numbers, at AAA, .363 OBP, 24 runs scored in 140 AB (17 percent). Gomez can also steal bases: 17 in AAA last year. However, he struggled in the Major Leagues last year, he hit .232 with a .288 OBP. He may need more time in AAA, although he is a speedster on the bases. He had 12 stolen bases in 125 ML AB.
Among the other newcomers, 2B Brendan Harris had an OBP of .343 last year, with 4 stolen bases; Mike Lamb had a .366 OBP, but with no stolen bases; Delmon Young had an OBP of .316 with 10 SB.
Clearly, the choice is between Pridie, Gomez and Mauer. Conventional wisdom might say to give it to the speedster Gomez and let him fly; my inclination is to give it to Pridie. At AA and AAA (combined) Pridie scored 89 runs. Betwen the minor leagues and the majors, Gomex scored 39 runs last year. Mauer scored 62 for the Twins.
Some point to Mauer, and suggest he should be the lead-off hitter. He is our best hitter. He should be in the No. 2 or 3 spot, getting Pridie around the basepaths to score.
Pridie should have the CF job, with Gomez having the fourth OF spot, letting him learn from the likes of Cuddyer and Young.
And Pridie should lead off. Give him the chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues. His record shows he deserves it.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Blogger Blottings
• Spring training officially starts on Sunday, when pitchers and catchers report for duty. One Twin won't be there: Francisco Liriano, who's having visa problems and may be delayed by a week or more.
That's too bad. I'm sure he'll make a big splash when he arrives.
• In my roster predictions, I have barely mentioned any of the spring training invitees - including Zach Day and Randy Keisler - both signed to minor league contracts and invited to ST. I don't expect these two - or any of the others on the invitee list - to make the final cut.
• I believe with all of the outfielders the Twins have: Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez, that the Twins will NOT keep Craig Monroe. The ONLY scenario where I see the Twins keeping Monroe (other than by more trades or by injury) is if he really hits well this spring, and the Twins leave Gomez or Pridie at AAA. Gomez may need more seasoning at AAA; but Pridie - I believe - is ready for the big show. He did really well last year in AAA. Gomez may be the CF of the future, but Pridie is the CF for the now. Keeping both - and letting them platoon - makes more sense than keeping Monroe and his $3.82 million salary. if they release him, they pay him only around $600,000, depending on the timing of the decision.
• Who will lead off the starting rotation? My choice would be Kevin Slowey. But I suspect it will be Scott Baker.
That's too bad. I'm sure he'll make a big splash when he arrives.
• In my roster predictions, I have barely mentioned any of the spring training invitees - including Zach Day and Randy Keisler - both signed to minor league contracts and invited to ST. I don't expect these two - or any of the others on the invitee list - to make the final cut.
• I believe with all of the outfielders the Twins have: Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez, that the Twins will NOT keep Craig Monroe. The ONLY scenario where I see the Twins keeping Monroe (other than by more trades or by injury) is if he really hits well this spring, and the Twins leave Gomez or Pridie at AAA. Gomez may need more seasoning at AAA; but Pridie - I believe - is ready for the big show. He did really well last year in AAA. Gomez may be the CF of the future, but Pridie is the CF for the now. Keeping both - and letting them platoon - makes more sense than keeping Monroe and his $3.82 million salary. if they release him, they pay him only around $600,000, depending on the timing of the decision.
• Who will lead off the starting rotation? My choice would be Kevin Slowey. But I suspect it will be Scott Baker.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Roster alters
With the signing of Livan Hernandez, it's liable to have some effect on the Twins' 25-man roster.
Philip Humber will likely be the odd-man out, among the Twins' starters. Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are locks to make the starting five, as is Hernandez. If Liriano needs to be stretched out more, or any of them falter, Humber would be waiting to fill the spot.
Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Kevin Mulvey are the next tier of candidates. Any of them could easily step onto the Major League pitching mound this summer.
Another question with his signing is on the 40-man roster. Right now, as of 2/14/08, the Twins have 41 players on their 40-man roster. That includes Jose Mijares who was injured in a car accident and will not be pitching for several months. He will undoubtedly be put on the 60-day disabled list.
Another roster question circles around Craig Monroe, especially if he falters this spring. Will the Twins bring him north, or cut him loose and save a bunch of money? Right now, some expect him to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel. But Monroe has to prove his worth this spring. otherwise, the Twins won't keep him around.
Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez will compete for the CF spot. I expect both to stay with the club, but Gomez may need some more seasoning at AAA. If Gomez does not come north, then either Denard Span or Garrett Jones will stay with the club as its fifth outfielder, or - more likely - Alexi Casilla or Brian Buscher would get a shot as another reserve infielder.
Ah springtime. It's a great time of year.
Philip Humber will likely be the odd-man out, among the Twins' starters. Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are locks to make the starting five, as is Hernandez. If Liriano needs to be stretched out more, or any of them falter, Humber would be waiting to fill the spot.
Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Kevin Mulvey are the next tier of candidates. Any of them could easily step onto the Major League pitching mound this summer.
Another question with his signing is on the 40-man roster. Right now, as of 2/14/08, the Twins have 41 players on their 40-man roster. That includes Jose Mijares who was injured in a car accident and will not be pitching for several months. He will undoubtedly be put on the 60-day disabled list.
Another roster question circles around Craig Monroe, especially if he falters this spring. Will the Twins bring him north, or cut him loose and save a bunch of money? Right now, some expect him to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel. But Monroe has to prove his worth this spring. otherwise, the Twins won't keep him around.
Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez will compete for the CF spot. I expect both to stay with the club, but Gomez may need some more seasoning at AAA. If Gomez does not come north, then either Denard Span or Garrett Jones will stay with the club as its fifth outfielder, or - more likely - Alexi Casilla or Brian Buscher would get a shot as another reserve infielder.
Ah springtime. It's a great time of year.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Twins Livan Large...
The Minnesota Twins signed Livan Hernandez Tuesday to a $5 million contract. With that, they get the use of a veteran pitcher for a year.
I've been pushing and pushing for the Twins to sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher. Now that they've done that, I guess it's not time to complain but...
• On the negative side, Hernandez had a WHIP of 1.595 in 2007 in the National League. That's a lot of walks and hits. He was second in the NL for giving up home runs. His ERA was 4.93, just over the NL average of 4.70. But in the AL, he'll be facing DHs instead of pitchers (although I don't give this a lot of stock - later in games they face PHs instead of pitchers).
• On the positive side, Hernandez eats innings - for breafast, lunch and dinner. He's pitched more than 199 innings every season since 1998. He's reliable; he's started 30 or more games each of the past 10 years. He has a winning record for his career (134-128) and was 11-11 last year. He's better than Silva, who was 13-14 last year.
• Oddity: Hernandez' ERA was 3.94 in April, 3.29 in May and 3.60 in August. In the other three months, it was over 6.00. Maybe he will do well in the climate-controlled Metrodome, instead of in the Arizona heat.
I seriously doubt Hernandez will reach 200 innings with the Twins. Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in the majors, and Manager Ron Gardenhire has a quick trigger on the shower button. But Hernandez - if healthy and productive - will get his starts.
I'm glad the Twins picked up a veteran starting pitcher. Certainly there were not too many to choose from. Hernandez fits that bill. And he's had some post-season success as well.
He may not be Santana, but he'll help the Twins win in 2008, especially with their better defense and offense.
I've been pushing and pushing for the Twins to sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher. Now that they've done that, I guess it's not time to complain but...
• On the negative side, Hernandez had a WHIP of 1.595 in 2007 in the National League. That's a lot of walks and hits. He was second in the NL for giving up home runs. His ERA was 4.93, just over the NL average of 4.70. But in the AL, he'll be facing DHs instead of pitchers (although I don't give this a lot of stock - later in games they face PHs instead of pitchers).
• On the positive side, Hernandez eats innings - for breafast, lunch and dinner. He's pitched more than 199 innings every season since 1998. He's reliable; he's started 30 or more games each of the past 10 years. He has a winning record for his career (134-128) and was 11-11 last year. He's better than Silva, who was 13-14 last year.
• Oddity: Hernandez' ERA was 3.94 in April, 3.29 in May and 3.60 in August. In the other three months, it was over 6.00. Maybe he will do well in the climate-controlled Metrodome, instead of in the Arizona heat.
I seriously doubt Hernandez will reach 200 innings with the Twins. Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in the majors, and Manager Ron Gardenhire has a quick trigger on the shower button. But Hernandez - if healthy and productive - will get his starts.
I'm glad the Twins picked up a veteran starting pitcher. Certainly there were not too many to choose from. Hernandez fits that bill. And he's had some post-season success as well.
He may not be Santana, but he'll help the Twins win in 2008, especially with their better defense and offense.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Depth Chart
The 'Official' Minnesota Twins Depth Chart (on the Twins' website) was updated today, and shows a little interesting information.
Now this chart clearly shows more than 25 players on the team, and has at least three people at each position, except catcher and DH. Now the chart just draws players that are on the Twins' 40-man roster, and can be changed at any time.
The listed starting pitchers are: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Bullpen members are Joe Nathan (closer), Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Glen Perkins.
There are few surprises among the fielders. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe are the three in left field, Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span are listed in CF and Michael Cuddyer, Young and Monroe are listed in RF.
Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher and Nick Punto are listed at 3B; Adam Everett, Punto and Brendan Harris are listed at SS; Harris, Alexi Casilla and Punto are at 2B and Justin Morneau, Lamb and Cuddyer are listed at 1B.
Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond are, of course, the catchers. Kubel and Monroe are listed at DH.
This list has 14 pitchers (12 are expected to come north), and 15 different position players (13 are expected to come north).
Among the surprises: DePaula, who played in 16 games for the Twins last year, and had an 8.55 ERA, losing one game. For Rochester last year, he was 12-5, with a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Exclusively a reliever for the Red Wings, he certainly could be an option for the Twins, especially if one or more of their talented relief staff shows they are not ready after recovering from surgery.
Span in CF. Certainly Pridie and Gomez are likely to start with the Twins, but having three separate players (not listed with the other outfielders) in CF is redundant. I expect the Twins to bring both Gomez and Pridie north, but barring injury, not Span yet.
Some people - including Monroe himself in an article earlier this winter - have suggested that he would be a candidate for CF; Young is another option there. This clearly shows some thinking by the Twins that they are limiting their CF patrollers to the youngsters (Gomez, Pridie and Span), and not including Young or Monroe, except in an emergency.
Buscher at 3B is not much of a surprise, although I expect him to spend another year at Rochester, or to be called up mid-season. He is listed second on the chart at 3B.
Casilla is listed at 2B, but he also will likely not make the team out of ST. It's interesting that he's listed second at 2B; it may indicate he's being considered as another utility infielder for the ML club, but he's not listed at SS - Harris is.
It's also interesting that DePaula and Perkins are listed as the last two among the relievers. Could Perkins be headed back to AAA? I would hope he's coming north.
The whole process of narrowing down those candidates to 25 players starts next week when catchers and pitchers report for duty at Fort Myers.
Now this chart clearly shows more than 25 players on the team, and has at least three people at each position, except catcher and DH. Now the chart just draws players that are on the Twins' 40-man roster, and can be changed at any time.
The listed starting pitchers are: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Bullpen members are Joe Nathan (closer), Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Glen Perkins.
There are few surprises among the fielders. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe are the three in left field, Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span are listed in CF and Michael Cuddyer, Young and Monroe are listed in RF.
Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher and Nick Punto are listed at 3B; Adam Everett, Punto and Brendan Harris are listed at SS; Harris, Alexi Casilla and Punto are at 2B and Justin Morneau, Lamb and Cuddyer are listed at 1B.
Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond are, of course, the catchers. Kubel and Monroe are listed at DH.
This list has 14 pitchers (12 are expected to come north), and 15 different position players (13 are expected to come north).
Among the surprises: DePaula, who played in 16 games for the Twins last year, and had an 8.55 ERA, losing one game. For Rochester last year, he was 12-5, with a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Exclusively a reliever for the Red Wings, he certainly could be an option for the Twins, especially if one or more of their talented relief staff shows they are not ready after recovering from surgery.
Span in CF. Certainly Pridie and Gomez are likely to start with the Twins, but having three separate players (not listed with the other outfielders) in CF is redundant. I expect the Twins to bring both Gomez and Pridie north, but barring injury, not Span yet.
Some people - including Monroe himself in an article earlier this winter - have suggested that he would be a candidate for CF; Young is another option there. This clearly shows some thinking by the Twins that they are limiting their CF patrollers to the youngsters (Gomez, Pridie and Span), and not including Young or Monroe, except in an emergency.
Buscher at 3B is not much of a surprise, although I expect him to spend another year at Rochester, or to be called up mid-season. He is listed second on the chart at 3B.
Casilla is listed at 2B, but he also will likely not make the team out of ST. It's interesting that he's listed second at 2B; it may indicate he's being considered as another utility infielder for the ML club, but he's not listed at SS - Harris is.
It's also interesting that DePaula and Perkins are listed as the last two among the relievers. Could Perkins be headed back to AAA? I would hope he's coming north.
The whole process of narrowing down those candidates to 25 players starts next week when catchers and pitchers report for duty at Fort Myers.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
On the edge
I've commented on the Twins roster in the last two posts. But there are some guys who - with an injury to another player, or with a really good spring - could wind up on the Twins' 25-man active roster.
Here are a few:
Brian Bass: Bass may get a shot at the 25-man roster as a SP or RP. He was signed by the Twins last year as a 6th year minor league free agent, and was re-signed this year. He was 7-3 last year, with 10 starts in 37 games, with a 3.48 era and 1.16 WHIP.
Brian Buscher: 3B Buscher made his first appearance in the bigs last year, and it wasn't pretty. Although he can hit, he needs to work on his defense.
Alexi Casilla: Casilla has spent time with the Twins, but would be best served with a little more time at AAA. He'll come up at some point this season, though. He's versatile, with the ability to play SS and 2B. Playing every day at Rochester will help complete his development.
Brian Duensing: Predicted by some to be on the Twins' 08' roster, Duensing is best known now for being the starting pitcher on Team USA in the championship game against Cuba in the World Cup. Duensing needs more seasoning in AAA.
Bobby Korecky: He was the Red Wings' closer last year and posted 35 saves. The 28-year old came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade with the Phillies in Dec. 2003 (The Twins also received Nick Punto and Carlos Silva.) He might get a shot at being a relief pitcher for the Twins this year.
Matt Macri: A 3B, Macri came to the Twins in exchange for Ramon Ortiz last year. He needs more time at Rochester.
Kevin Mulvey: SP Mulvey just came over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He excelled briefly at AAA last year, after being promoted from AA in the Mets' organization. Mulvey might well be a sleeper in the big trade. he could easily reach the majors with a few more solid innings at AAA.
Matt Tolbert: Another good hitter, Tolbert's playing time in the minors is running out. He'll turn 26 in May. The Twins may well call him up, especially if Brendan Harris falters. Tolbert batted .293/.353/.427/.780 last year at AAA.
Tommy Watkins: Called up last year with the Twins, Watkins batted .357 in 28 at bats with the Twins before getting injured. He's also versatile, playing 2B, 3B, SS and OF. Keep in mind that SS Adam Everett was signed to a one-year contract, and that Nick Punto is in the last year of his contract. The Twins know they have some good middle infielders in the minor leagues waiting to take a roster spot, including Tolbert, Casilla and Watkins.
Here are a few:
Brian Bass: Bass may get a shot at the 25-man roster as a SP or RP. He was signed by the Twins last year as a 6th year minor league free agent, and was re-signed this year. He was 7-3 last year, with 10 starts in 37 games, with a 3.48 era and 1.16 WHIP.
Brian Buscher: 3B Buscher made his first appearance in the bigs last year, and it wasn't pretty. Although he can hit, he needs to work on his defense.
Alexi Casilla: Casilla has spent time with the Twins, but would be best served with a little more time at AAA. He'll come up at some point this season, though. He's versatile, with the ability to play SS and 2B. Playing every day at Rochester will help complete his development.
Brian Duensing: Predicted by some to be on the Twins' 08' roster, Duensing is best known now for being the starting pitcher on Team USA in the championship game against Cuba in the World Cup. Duensing needs more seasoning in AAA.
Bobby Korecky: He was the Red Wings' closer last year and posted 35 saves. The 28-year old came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade with the Phillies in Dec. 2003 (The Twins also received Nick Punto and Carlos Silva.) He might get a shot at being a relief pitcher for the Twins this year.
Matt Macri: A 3B, Macri came to the Twins in exchange for Ramon Ortiz last year. He needs more time at Rochester.
Kevin Mulvey: SP Mulvey just came over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He excelled briefly at AAA last year, after being promoted from AA in the Mets' organization. Mulvey might well be a sleeper in the big trade. he could easily reach the majors with a few more solid innings at AAA.
Matt Tolbert: Another good hitter, Tolbert's playing time in the minors is running out. He'll turn 26 in May. The Twins may well call him up, especially if Brendan Harris falters. Tolbert batted .293/.353/.427/.780 last year at AAA.
Tommy Watkins: Called up last year with the Twins, Watkins batted .357 in 28 at bats with the Twins before getting injured. He's also versatile, playing 2B, 3B, SS and OF. Keep in mind that SS Adam Everett was signed to a one-year contract, and that Nick Punto is in the last year of his contract. The Twins know they have some good middle infielders in the minor leagues waiting to take a roster spot, including Tolbert, Casilla and Watkins.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
The Pitching half
I'm predicting the Twins will bring 13 hitters north, and 12 pitchers.
The pitchers are:
SP: Kevin Slowey, Phillip Humber, Francisco Liriano, and the b-boys: Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. That's five.
Two more could make the roster on the relief side, but they're really starters: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins.
Closer: Joe Nathan. The best in the biz.
Relievers: Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
One concern is the lack of lefties: Only Reyes, Perkins and Liriano are lefties. In fact, of the 19 pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, only five are lefies (Carmen Cali and Jose Mijares are the remaining two. Mijares will be on the disabled list, as he was in an accident and is not expected to pitch for several months.)
Of course, it could be worse. The Angels only have two lefties on their roster.
Getting back to the starting rotation, the Twins could easily have five starters who are all right-handers. At most, they'll have two lefties, Liriano and Perkins.
That leaves Cali, Perkins and Reyes as the potential left-handers. Cali has just not been that effective in relief. That's why he won't make the ML roster, barring injury, or having Liriano start the season at Rochester.
There are nine more pitchers on the non-roster invitee list, including four lefties. None will be going north.
As for who will lead off the rotation, my vote would be Slowey. People have been complaining that because Johan Santana is now a Met, that the Twins have no top-of-the-roster starter.
Well, before Santana burst on the scene, the Twins had a good one. Brad Radke. Radke led the Twins for several years, not because he had a fireball of a fastball (he didn't), but because of control. Radke was effective in his control and also in changing speeds.
Some pitchers are just about speed. throwing faster and faster and harder and harder. Sooner or later their arms give out. Others are about control, and being able to throw pitches at different speeds, to keep the hitter off-balanced.
Slowey is like that., If he returns to form this year, he should be the starter on opening day. If Liriano needs a month or so to find his pitching groove after having Tommy John surgery, Slowey will be the top pick.
If Liriano starts at AAA, Blackburn or Perkins will be inserted into the rotation, and Cali could be kept for the relief pen.
It should be an interesting spring, with all these young pitchers - including Humber who just came over in the Santana trade - vying for spots in the rotation.
All of this is speculating that the Twins won't trade for or sign a veteran presence. (Oh, and Zach Day isn't it. He's on the non-roster list, but he's only got 60 starts in the Major Leagues. Not much of a jump from Baker and Bonser who lead the club with 48 starts each).
That's the list: SP: Slowey, Humber, Liriano, Bonser and Baker; RP: Nathan, Crain, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
The pitchers are:
SP: Kevin Slowey, Phillip Humber, Francisco Liriano, and the b-boys: Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. That's five.
Two more could make the roster on the relief side, but they're really starters: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins.
Closer: Joe Nathan. The best in the biz.
Relievers: Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
One concern is the lack of lefties: Only Reyes, Perkins and Liriano are lefties. In fact, of the 19 pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, only five are lefies (Carmen Cali and Jose Mijares are the remaining two. Mijares will be on the disabled list, as he was in an accident and is not expected to pitch for several months.)
Of course, it could be worse. The Angels only have two lefties on their roster.
Getting back to the starting rotation, the Twins could easily have five starters who are all right-handers. At most, they'll have two lefties, Liriano and Perkins.
That leaves Cali, Perkins and Reyes as the potential left-handers. Cali has just not been that effective in relief. That's why he won't make the ML roster, barring injury, or having Liriano start the season at Rochester.
There are nine more pitchers on the non-roster invitee list, including four lefties. None will be going north.
As for who will lead off the rotation, my vote would be Slowey. People have been complaining that because Johan Santana is now a Met, that the Twins have no top-of-the-roster starter.
Well, before Santana burst on the scene, the Twins had a good one. Brad Radke. Radke led the Twins for several years, not because he had a fireball of a fastball (he didn't), but because of control. Radke was effective in his control and also in changing speeds.
Some pitchers are just about speed. throwing faster and faster and harder and harder. Sooner or later their arms give out. Others are about control, and being able to throw pitches at different speeds, to keep the hitter off-balanced.
Slowey is like that., If he returns to form this year, he should be the starter on opening day. If Liriano needs a month or so to find his pitching groove after having Tommy John surgery, Slowey will be the top pick.
If Liriano starts at AAA, Blackburn or Perkins will be inserted into the rotation, and Cali could be kept for the relief pen.
It should be an interesting spring, with all these young pitchers - including Humber who just came over in the Santana trade - vying for spots in the rotation.
All of this is speculating that the Twins won't trade for or sign a veteran presence. (Oh, and Zach Day isn't it. He's on the non-roster list, but he's only got 60 starts in the Major Leagues. Not much of a jump from Baker and Bonser who lead the club with 48 starts each).
That's the list: SP: Slowey, Humber, Liriano, Bonser and Baker; RP: Nathan, Crain, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Half the roster
Here's my roster of hitters/fielders going into 2008:
CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.
1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.
2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)
SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.
3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.
There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.
RF: Michael Cuddyer.
LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.
CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.
The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.
The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)
That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.
Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.
Against a tough left-hander. it could be:
Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS
This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto
Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS
I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.
Looks good.
CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.
1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.
2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)
SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.
3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.
There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.
RF: Michael Cuddyer.
LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.
CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.
The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.
The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)
That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.
Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.
Against a tough left-hander. it could be:
Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS
This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto
Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS
I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.
Looks good.
Friday, February 1, 2008
2008: An exciting Twins season
An old baseball adage is that one key to success is having very good defenders up the middle.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
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