Thursday, February 21, 2008

Ex-Span-ding the outfield

Denard Span has ben the heir-apparent to Torii Hunter since he was drafted in 2002. So why did the Twins - when they lost Hunter to free agency - sign one OF and acquire two more speedy CF in trades the offseason?

Maybe because they felt Span is not ready yet, and wanted to have some true competition for the job come spring.

That they have.

Craig Monroe, the outfielder they signed, is more of a bench player. His threat is the homerun, not catching potential home run balls at the fence like Hunter and former Twin Kirby Puckett used to do.

The three potential center fielders are Span, Jason Pridie - acquired from the Rays in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade; and Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.

Lets look at them (2007 Stats from Baseball-Reference.com):

Name Level AB R H RBI BB SO BA OBP SB CF/games RF/Game
Span AAA 487 59 130 55 40 90 .267 .323 25 134 2.69
Pridie AA-AAA 524 89 159 66 36 92 .303 .352 26 101 2.53
Gomez A+-AAA 153 25 42 13 16 27 .275 .355 19 36 2.94
Gomez Mets 125 14 29 12 8 27 .232 .288 12 4 1.00
Monroe Det/ChC 392 53 86 59 26 107 .219 .268 0 7 2.31

Pridie had the most at-bats, the most stolen bases and the highest batting average. Span played the most games in CF. Gomez had the highest Range Factor per game, albeit in 36 AAA games. Gomez probably has the greatest potential, but whether he's ready right now, is a good question. He only played 40 games in CF last year (36+4).

If the Twins are looking for a pure defensive CF, Span and Gomez have the highest range factors. Looking for the most experience at the position? Span and Pridie are tops there. Looking for a pure leadoff hitter? Pridie and Gomez fit the bill with the highest averages and on base percentage.

Yes, Gomez was in the Major Leagues last year, but most of that time he was in elsewhere in the OF; he only spent four games in CF. Monroe spent 7 games there in 2007 - he's been in CF for 77 of his 720 ML games. Monroe has never been a good CF; he just doesn't have the range needed.

One more twist: Span and Pridie are left-handed batters; Monroe and Gomez are righties. If they do equally well in spring training, it's unlikely Pridie and Span would come up together, since both are left handed batters.

So if Monroe can't do the everyday job, it falls between Span, Gomez and Pridie. Pridie has the edge for now, but Gomez will eclipse him when he gets more experience in the field.

My prediction is unchanged. Pridie and Gomez will go north, and come close to platooning in the position. Monroe - if he makes the team, will be on the bench.

And Span will still be chomping at the bit for the Major League CF job.

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