I am a simple guy. I like ketchup, pickles and onions on my hamburger. No mustard or sauer kraut.
In baseball, the ultimate goal is to win games, by scoring runs. Has anyone used run production (runs and RBIs) as a statistic for evaluating hitters? Specifically, here is my new stat - forgive me if someone else came up with this first:
Runs Produced per At-Bat (RP/AB)=Runs scored, plus runs batted in, minus home runs (to eliminate duplication), with that total divided by at-bats. In short, it measures how many runs (usually fractions) will score with each at-bat.
It's simple. It's effective. It works.
Some may argue that this player or that player simply isn't on a team that scores runs, or doesn't have anyone on base when they are up to bat, or is a run-scorer more than an RBI man. That may be true, but baseball is a team sport. The goal as an individual and as a team is to win, to score runs.
If you are doing well, others on your team are doing well, usually. In 2006, several Twins had career years (Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer).
If you come to bat and no one is on base, what's your goal? Either get on base to score, or hit a home run. Obviously, hitting more doubles and triples and home runs helps your cause. But so does clutch hitting (with runners on base). So does higher batting average, usually. So does more walks.
Here are some RP/AB stats for some Twins: (the career numbers include the first three games of 2008)
Career 2006 2007
Cuddyer .260 .336 .278
Gomez .191 .192
Kubel .223 .186 .242
Lamb .249 .270 .238
Mauer .267 .301 .283
Morneau .280 .321 .278
Punto .200 .255 .163
Now for another comparison:
Alex Rodriguez .338 .348 .420
The Twins had Randy Ruiz in Spring training. In 28 at bats, he scored 9 times, had 7 RBIs and 2 home runs. His RP/AB: .500
Unlike a batting average, RP/AB can over short periods of time exceed 1.00. For example, hitters who hit grand slams have a 4.00 RP/AB for that at bat. It can - extremely rarely - even exceed that; walks don't add to at-bats, but they can add to runs and RBIs. Baseball purists might use plate appearances rather than at bats. But at-bats - as a statistic - is more readily available.
This stat shows a better overall productivity rating than average or slugging percentage.
No mustard. no sauer kraut. What do you think?
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Three keys
Keys to the Twins' success in 2008:
• The Relief Corps has to remain strong. This is probably the least-worrisome component of the Twins' potential for success.
• Defense, Defense, Defense: The Twins have improved their defense up the middle in the infield with Everett at SS, but Castillo was better defensively than any of the current Twins. If Tolbert shows he can play 2B well, Harris and Punto might yet be the bench players. In the outfield, the Twins have three strong arms in Young, Gomez and Cuddyer, but Gomez' talent is pretty raw. Overall, the defense will be about the same as last year, or perhaps a hair worse.
• The Offense has to click. This is one area where the Twins have at least tried to improve, getting Young and Harris from Tampa Bay, signing 3B Lamb and Monroe, and acquiring Gomez. This offense could click to point of scoring 150 more runs this year over 2007.
• The starting pitching has to learn. This is a young staff, and we have to be patient. Don't expect a lot from Liriano. After recovering from surgery a year ago, he'll still be feeling his way back to success. And Hernandez won't be around too long. He needs to return to the National League. But Slowey, Bonser, Baker, Blackburn and Humber will all contribute to this season and most should have positive winning percentages.
Those are the top keys. They're incredibly obvious. But they can contribute to a winning Twins' season.
• The Relief Corps has to remain strong. This is probably the least-worrisome component of the Twins' potential for success.
• Defense, Defense, Defense: The Twins have improved their defense up the middle in the infield with Everett at SS, but Castillo was better defensively than any of the current Twins. If Tolbert shows he can play 2B well, Harris and Punto might yet be the bench players. In the outfield, the Twins have three strong arms in Young, Gomez and Cuddyer, but Gomez' talent is pretty raw. Overall, the defense will be about the same as last year, or perhaps a hair worse.
• The Offense has to click. This is one area where the Twins have at least tried to improve, getting Young and Harris from Tampa Bay, signing 3B Lamb and Monroe, and acquiring Gomez. This offense could click to point of scoring 150 more runs this year over 2007.
• The starting pitching has to learn. This is a young staff, and we have to be patient. Don't expect a lot from Liriano. After recovering from surgery a year ago, he'll still be feeling his way back to success. And Hernandez won't be around too long. He needs to return to the National League. But Slowey, Bonser, Baker, Blackburn and Humber will all contribute to this season and most should have positive winning percentages.
Those are the top keys. They're incredibly obvious. But they can contribute to a winning Twins' season.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Predictions
Some predictions: The Red Sox will win the East, and Angels the west. I see more parity in the Central; I actually think the Twins could vie with Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit for the Central title.
It's true, everyone would have to do well, especially our starters. But Nick Blackburn and Philip Humber will be good additions, and I see Slowey leading in games won, with 18.
If the Bs can pitch up to their potential (Boof Bonser, Scott Baker and Blackburn) it will be an exciting season. I'm actually not expecting a lot from Hernandez or Liriano. Hernandez will be gone before the All-Star break, and Francisco Liriano won't be as effective as he was in 2006. He'll be much better in 2009.
The offense should be greatly improved. And Gomez will provide a lot of excitement. So far this spring, he's been on base 17 times, and scored 12 times. That's a 70 percent clip. I doubt if it will carry into the regular season, but if it did, it would be great.
I know I really felt that Jason Pridie would be the Twins' best CF choice, but Gomez certainly is exciting to watch. As long as Craig Monroe doesn't get much time in CF, I'll be fine. Denard Span was probably disappointed, but he'll get another chance.
Matt Tolbert actually played a little outfield in Tuesday's game. Must be Ron Gardenhire's effort to stretch the infielder into an even more well-rounded reserve. If he gets hot offensively, watch him take over at 2B though.
The relief corps should be solid again, especially now that Joe Nathan has been signed to a 4-year deal. It was expected. The Twins need him to anchor the relief pen.
It's true, everyone would have to do well, especially our starters. But Nick Blackburn and Philip Humber will be good additions, and I see Slowey leading in games won, with 18.
If the Bs can pitch up to their potential (Boof Bonser, Scott Baker and Blackburn) it will be an exciting season. I'm actually not expecting a lot from Hernandez or Liriano. Hernandez will be gone before the All-Star break, and Francisco Liriano won't be as effective as he was in 2006. He'll be much better in 2009.
The offense should be greatly improved. And Gomez will provide a lot of excitement. So far this spring, he's been on base 17 times, and scored 12 times. That's a 70 percent clip. I doubt if it will carry into the regular season, but if it did, it would be great.
I know I really felt that Jason Pridie would be the Twins' best CF choice, but Gomez certainly is exciting to watch. As long as Craig Monroe doesn't get much time in CF, I'll be fine. Denard Span was probably disappointed, but he'll get another chance.
Matt Tolbert actually played a little outfield in Tuesday's game. Must be Ron Gardenhire's effort to stretch the infielder into an even more well-rounded reserve. If he gets hot offensively, watch him take over at 2B though.
The relief corps should be solid again, especially now that Joe Nathan has been signed to a 4-year deal. It was expected. The Twins need him to anchor the relief pen.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Tolbert at 2B?
Question: Could Matt Tolbert be the Twins' 2B in 2008?
At Rochester last year, Tolbert was primarily a 2B, playing 101 games there. Although the Twins have him listed as a SS on their spring training stats list, with both Nick Punto (hitting .156) and Brendan Harris (.184) both struggling, and Tolbert
(.276) still in camp, could the Twins be looking at keeping Tolbert and surprising everyone by having him start at 2B? That remains to be seen.
In the race for the CF spot, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez seem to be neck and neck, with Gomez getting the edge just on the excitement level, despite Span's recent surge at the plate. With Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe both in camp, both DHs and both OFs, it's unlikely, but possible, that the other CF candidate stays with the Twins. That also means that OF Jason Pridie is also likely to be sent to AAA, unfortunately, because he could be the starting CF.
Gomez is getting the edge for the starting CF job not because of hitting (.267 this spring) or OBP (.286) but because of excitement. He has 12 hits and two walks, meaning he's been on base 14 times this spring.
He has scored 11 of those times. He has 6 RBI, meaning of the three candidates, he might not be the best hitter, but he's by far the best plate crosser.
If Gomez gets the job, Pridie and Span will start at AAA Rochester. But if Gomez' OBP doesn't increase as a leadoff hitter, either Span or Pridie will get the call.
Hence, Tolbert's likely opponent in the race to be the 25th man out of spring training appears to be 3B Brian Buscher, who is also struggling. Buscher is hitting .138 this spring, with one HR.
Buscher has more power than Tolbert, but Tolbert can play three infield positions, making him more valuable.
Making Tolbert the 2B puts both Harris and Punto on the bench, something that seems unlikely. Harris can hit, but Punto can field. That would make the bench Monroe/Kubel, CA Mike Redmond, Punto and Harris.
Most likely, Harris will be the Twins starting 2B, with Punto and Tolbert on the bench. But the Twins are unlikely to put up with many fielding mistakes at 2B, which means either Harris improves his defense, or Tolbert and Punto will be waiting in the wings.
At Rochester last year, Tolbert was primarily a 2B, playing 101 games there. Although the Twins have him listed as a SS on their spring training stats list, with both Nick Punto (hitting .156) and Brendan Harris (.184) both struggling, and Tolbert
(.276) still in camp, could the Twins be looking at keeping Tolbert and surprising everyone by having him start at 2B? That remains to be seen.
In the race for the CF spot, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez seem to be neck and neck, with Gomez getting the edge just on the excitement level, despite Span's recent surge at the plate. With Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe both in camp, both DHs and both OFs, it's unlikely, but possible, that the other CF candidate stays with the Twins. That also means that OF Jason Pridie is also likely to be sent to AAA, unfortunately, because he could be the starting CF.
Gomez is getting the edge for the starting CF job not because of hitting (.267 this spring) or OBP (.286) but because of excitement. He has 12 hits and two walks, meaning he's been on base 14 times this spring.
He has scored 11 of those times. He has 6 RBI, meaning of the three candidates, he might not be the best hitter, but he's by far the best plate crosser.
If Gomez gets the job, Pridie and Span will start at AAA Rochester. But if Gomez' OBP doesn't increase as a leadoff hitter, either Span or Pridie will get the call.
Hence, Tolbert's likely opponent in the race to be the 25th man out of spring training appears to be 3B Brian Buscher, who is also struggling. Buscher is hitting .138 this spring, with one HR.
Buscher has more power than Tolbert, but Tolbert can play three infield positions, making him more valuable.
Making Tolbert the 2B puts both Harris and Punto on the bench, something that seems unlikely. Harris can hit, but Punto can field. That would make the bench Monroe/Kubel, CA Mike Redmond, Punto and Harris.
Most likely, Harris will be the Twins starting 2B, with Punto and Tolbert on the bench. But the Twins are unlikely to put up with many fielding mistakes at 2B, which means either Harris improves his defense, or Tolbert and Punto will be waiting in the wings.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Fringe players
Several position players seem to be vying for that last spot on the Twins Roster, including:
• Randy Ruiz. A career .300 hitter in nine minor league seasons, Ruiz hasn't yet made it to the majors. He's batting .455 with two home runs this spring. His problem: He virtually only plays 1B and the OF. The Twins have a pretty good 1B in Justin Morneau, who's signed to a 6-year, $80 million contract and they have a glut of outfielders. Thirty-year-old Ruiz just isn't going to make it unless it is as a reserve. Just one more note on Ruiz: He has been the most PRODUCTIVE Twins player this spring; scoring 9 runs and getting 7 RBIs (16 total, -2 for his 2 hrs, makes 14 runs produced). Michael Cuddyer is next at 10. Ruiz is leading the Twins in both RBIs and runs scored this spring.
• Garrett Jones, an outfielder who is out of options, is batting .217 with one homer this spring. A real long shot to make it.
• Jason Pridie, one of the three who was trying for the every day CF position, still might make it there, despite Manager Ron Gardenhire saying that he would prefer either Carlos Gomez or Denard Span for the spot. Pridie is hitting at .280 this spring, higher than either Span (.227) or Gomez (.148). If Pridie doesn't make it as the every day CF, he could be the 25th man on the roster, but more likely would head to AAA.
• Brian Buscher started out this spring on fire, but has cooled off. His average has dipped to .190. It's looking like he'll start out at AAA, but he will likely get called up at some point this season.
• Chris Basak, a journeyman minor leaguer, is hitting .286 this spring with a .412 on base percentage. He has played mostly in the infield in the minor leagues, but the Twins have him listed as an outfielder. He has an outside chance to make the team.
• 3B Matt Macri, Howie Clark and Tommy Watkins look like they are also headed for the minors. Perennial Minor League OF Jon Knott is also headed that way.
• 2B Alexi Casilla is hitting .250, but he has a .423 OBP this spring. He has six walks and five hits, all singles. He might make that 25th spot as a reserve.
• IF Matt Tolbert is hitting .286; he can play 2B, 3B and SS, and also has an outside shot at making the team as the 25th player.
Two other notes about this spring's hitters:
- Nick Punto is not even close to the Mendoza line. He's hitting only .118 this spring. Prediction: Although he is signed through 2008, the Twins may cut him loose before the season starts if he doesn't start hitting soon. Good fielding only takes you so far. In that case, Tolbert or Casilla could benefit if Punto is released.
- The Twins' .400+ hitters right now are Ruiz, OF Craig Monroe, CA Joe Mauer and 3B Mike Lamb. Ruiz, Monroe and OF Jon Knott have each hit two homers to lead the club.
• Randy Ruiz. A career .300 hitter in nine minor league seasons, Ruiz hasn't yet made it to the majors. He's batting .455 with two home runs this spring. His problem: He virtually only plays 1B and the OF. The Twins have a pretty good 1B in Justin Morneau, who's signed to a 6-year, $80 million contract and they have a glut of outfielders. Thirty-year-old Ruiz just isn't going to make it unless it is as a reserve. Just one more note on Ruiz: He has been the most PRODUCTIVE Twins player this spring; scoring 9 runs and getting 7 RBIs (16 total, -2 for his 2 hrs, makes 14 runs produced). Michael Cuddyer is next at 10. Ruiz is leading the Twins in both RBIs and runs scored this spring.
• Garrett Jones, an outfielder who is out of options, is batting .217 with one homer this spring. A real long shot to make it.
• Jason Pridie, one of the three who was trying for the every day CF position, still might make it there, despite Manager Ron Gardenhire saying that he would prefer either Carlos Gomez or Denard Span for the spot. Pridie is hitting at .280 this spring, higher than either Span (.227) or Gomez (.148). If Pridie doesn't make it as the every day CF, he could be the 25th man on the roster, but more likely would head to AAA.
• Brian Buscher started out this spring on fire, but has cooled off. His average has dipped to .190. It's looking like he'll start out at AAA, but he will likely get called up at some point this season.
• Chris Basak, a journeyman minor leaguer, is hitting .286 this spring with a .412 on base percentage. He has played mostly in the infield in the minor leagues, but the Twins have him listed as an outfielder. He has an outside chance to make the team.
• 3B Matt Macri, Howie Clark and Tommy Watkins look like they are also headed for the minors. Perennial Minor League OF Jon Knott is also headed that way.
• 2B Alexi Casilla is hitting .250, but he has a .423 OBP this spring. He has six walks and five hits, all singles. He might make that 25th spot as a reserve.
• IF Matt Tolbert is hitting .286; he can play 2B, 3B and SS, and also has an outside shot at making the team as the 25th player.
Two other notes about this spring's hitters:
- Nick Punto is not even close to the Mendoza line. He's hitting only .118 this spring. Prediction: Although he is signed through 2008, the Twins may cut him loose before the season starts if he doesn't start hitting soon. Good fielding only takes you so far. In that case, Tolbert or Casilla could benefit if Punto is released.
- The Twins' .400+ hitters right now are Ruiz, OF Craig Monroe, CA Joe Mauer and 3B Mike Lamb. Ruiz, Monroe and OF Jon Knott have each hit two homers to lead the club.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Pitched battle
Kevin Slowey has endangered his would-have-been-a-lock on a starting position with the Twins with two bad outings. He's pitched 3 2/3 innings, and given up six runs (three in each of two outings).
There are just too many good pitchers in camp to ignore Slowey's problems this spring. Slowey - 4-1 with a 4.73 ERA last year - may just start the year at AAA.
As of this morning, there were 11 pitchers in camp who have pitched in at least one game with 0.00 ERAs so far this spring. They include Scott Baker and Boof Bonser - probable locks for the rotation, and two - Nick Blackburn and Philip Humber - who are vying for starting spots. Livan Hernandez is also a starter; he has a 4.5 ERA so far.
There are 14 other pitchers in camp who have given up earned runs. Julio DePaula, a right-handed relief pitcher, was 12-5 for AAA Rochester last year, with a 2.90 ERA. His ERA this spring is 2.25 (1 ER in 4 IP). He could make the Twins relief pen this year.
DePaula has to be a consideration for the relief pen, after his work in Rochester, but the pen is already pretty full with Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Matt Guerrier and Carmen Cali all having or vying for spots. So far, Cali, Guerrier, Neshek, Reyes and Rincon all have 0.00 ERAs, making it a tough choice.
A couple others with 0.00 ERAs are Bobby Korecky, the Rochester closer last year, and Deolis Guerra, the 19-year-old received in the Santana trade. Both will likely be in the minor leagues this year, no matter how well they pitch.
So the pitched battle goes on.
There are just too many good pitchers in camp to ignore Slowey's problems this spring. Slowey - 4-1 with a 4.73 ERA last year - may just start the year at AAA.
As of this morning, there were 11 pitchers in camp who have pitched in at least one game with 0.00 ERAs so far this spring. They include Scott Baker and Boof Bonser - probable locks for the rotation, and two - Nick Blackburn and Philip Humber - who are vying for starting spots. Livan Hernandez is also a starter; he has a 4.5 ERA so far.
There are 14 other pitchers in camp who have given up earned runs. Julio DePaula, a right-handed relief pitcher, was 12-5 for AAA Rochester last year, with a 2.90 ERA. His ERA this spring is 2.25 (1 ER in 4 IP). He could make the Twins relief pen this year.
DePaula has to be a consideration for the relief pen, after his work in Rochester, but the pen is already pretty full with Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Glen Perkins, Matt Guerrier and Carmen Cali all having or vying for spots. So far, Cali, Guerrier, Neshek, Reyes and Rincon all have 0.00 ERAs, making it a tough choice.
A couple others with 0.00 ERAs are Bobby Korecky, the Rochester closer last year, and Deolis Guerra, the 19-year-old received in the Santana trade. Both will likely be in the minor leagues this year, no matter how well they pitch.
So the pitched battle goes on.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Twins' trying different OF options
The Minnesota Twins are trying to find a sixth outfield spot on the roster, and it's getting hard to deny that Jason Pridie should be in the Major Leagues.
While others look to Carlos Gomez to fill the Twin's CF post, and while Gomez has clearly shown he can play the position, it's unclear if the speedy youngster can actually hit. The Twins' CF will probably need to fill the role of lead-off hitter.
Right now, the Twins have LF Delmon Young, RF Michael Cuddyer, DH Jason Kubel set with the major league squad. All can play the corner OF posts. Then there's Craig Monroe, who can (Yuck) play in the OF, but is most likely a pinch hitter.
Gomez, Denard Span and Pridie are all battling for the CF job. The Twins also have Garrett Jones, who is out of options and is a corner outfielder.
Will they keep five - or six outfielders? Manager Ron Gardenhire has already said he plans to go north with 12 pitchers and two catchers, leaving 11 infield and outfield positions. So there are four infield positions, a DH and three outfield positions (eight positions) for 11 players. If you throw the DH position in with the outfielders (since Kubel is expected to have that position and he's an outfielder) you have either five or six outfielders, and five or six infielders.
My guess is that GM Bill Smith is on the phone trying to shop Jones - and maybe even Monroe - for a minor leaguer or two.
Looking at the early Spring Training stats for Pridie, Span and Gomez, Pridie is leading in the hitting, with a .400 average (4 for 10); Span is at .286 (2/7) and Gomez at .154 (2/13).
In all fairness, Monroe is batting .333 this spring as well, in limited play (1 for 3). He's been injured for about a week.
So if the Twins keep Monroe, on top of Young, Cuddyer and Kubel, they are limited to one other OF, with five OF, or could keep two and have six, but that makes it more difficult to carry a sixth infielder (such as Alexi Casilla). My choice would still be to keep Pridie and Gomez.
If the Twins drop Monroe (and I think overall this is the most viable option, because it saves millions of dollars, and a valuable roster spot), it would allow the Twins to keep Pridie, Gomez, and Casilla.
Clearly, it's a difficult decision. Do they want a genuine power threat - Monroe - on the bench - but someone with only a limited ability to field and hit for average, or do they want someone who fields, hits for average, but not for power?
Pridie can hit for power, as well as average. He may not yet be a total power threat, but he hit 17 homers in A ball in 2004 and 14 homers total in AA and AAA last year. Gomez has hit for 8 homers at AA in 2006, but is better known for his speed and fielding ability. Span is not a home run threat, having hit seven total in five minor league seasons.
It looks like the Twins have been trying Pridie out in a number of OF positions, seeing if he can play well in all. That expands his usefullness. But I'd rather have him play every day in CF, and see what he can do - or have him platoon with Gomez, and give them both a shot.
In any case this CF battle is interesting to watch.
While others look to Carlos Gomez to fill the Twin's CF post, and while Gomez has clearly shown he can play the position, it's unclear if the speedy youngster can actually hit. The Twins' CF will probably need to fill the role of lead-off hitter.
Right now, the Twins have LF Delmon Young, RF Michael Cuddyer, DH Jason Kubel set with the major league squad. All can play the corner OF posts. Then there's Craig Monroe, who can (Yuck) play in the OF, but is most likely a pinch hitter.
Gomez, Denard Span and Pridie are all battling for the CF job. The Twins also have Garrett Jones, who is out of options and is a corner outfielder.
Will they keep five - or six outfielders? Manager Ron Gardenhire has already said he plans to go north with 12 pitchers and two catchers, leaving 11 infield and outfield positions. So there are four infield positions, a DH and three outfield positions (eight positions) for 11 players. If you throw the DH position in with the outfielders (since Kubel is expected to have that position and he's an outfielder) you have either five or six outfielders, and five or six infielders.
My guess is that GM Bill Smith is on the phone trying to shop Jones - and maybe even Monroe - for a minor leaguer or two.
Looking at the early Spring Training stats for Pridie, Span and Gomez, Pridie is leading in the hitting, with a .400 average (4 for 10); Span is at .286 (2/7) and Gomez at .154 (2/13).
In all fairness, Monroe is batting .333 this spring as well, in limited play (1 for 3). He's been injured for about a week.
So if the Twins keep Monroe, on top of Young, Cuddyer and Kubel, they are limited to one other OF, with five OF, or could keep two and have six, but that makes it more difficult to carry a sixth infielder (such as Alexi Casilla). My choice would still be to keep Pridie and Gomez.
If the Twins drop Monroe (and I think overall this is the most viable option, because it saves millions of dollars, and a valuable roster spot), it would allow the Twins to keep Pridie, Gomez, and Casilla.
Clearly, it's a difficult decision. Do they want a genuine power threat - Monroe - on the bench - but someone with only a limited ability to field and hit for average, or do they want someone who fields, hits for average, but not for power?
Pridie can hit for power, as well as average. He may not yet be a total power threat, but he hit 17 homers in A ball in 2004 and 14 homers total in AA and AAA last year. Gomez has hit for 8 homers at AA in 2006, but is better known for his speed and fielding ability. Span is not a home run threat, having hit seven total in five minor league seasons.
It looks like the Twins have been trying Pridie out in a number of OF positions, seeing if he can play well in all. That expands his usefullness. But I'd rather have him play every day in CF, and see what he can do - or have him platoon with Gomez, and give them both a shot.
In any case this CF battle is interesting to watch.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Uphill battle for Perkins
It's going to be an uphill battle for Glen Perkins to make the Twins' squad out of Spring Training, after he gave up three runs in one inning in Thursday's 6-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds.
Perkins' ERA after the stint was a stout 27.00. Unless he pitches nearly perfectly for the rest of the spring, it will be hard for him to get his ERA to respectibility.
Perkins had an outside chance to make the team's roster as a starter, but was more likely to be a left-handed relief pitcher. Now it's better than even odds, I would say, that he starts in Rochester.
Ricky Barrett, who had a scant chance to make the roster before Thursday's game, has nearly no chance now. He also gave up three runs, two earned.
Other Twins pitchers fared better: Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Casey Daigle and Julio DePaula each pitched an inning (Baker pitched two) and each gave up no runs. Baker gave up three hits, but no runs.
One Twins loss, the first spring game. Oh well.
At least Francisco Liriano is in camp, and by most reports, throwing well. That's a good sign.
Perkins' ERA after the stint was a stout 27.00. Unless he pitches nearly perfectly for the rest of the spring, it will be hard for him to get his ERA to respectibility.
Perkins had an outside chance to make the team's roster as a starter, but was more likely to be a left-handed relief pitcher. Now it's better than even odds, I would say, that he starts in Rochester.
Ricky Barrett, who had a scant chance to make the roster before Thursday's game, has nearly no chance now. He also gave up three runs, two earned.
Other Twins pitchers fared better: Scott Baker, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Casey Daigle and Julio DePaula each pitched an inning (Baker pitched two) and each gave up no runs. Baker gave up three hits, but no runs.
One Twins loss, the first spring game. Oh well.
At least Francisco Liriano is in camp, and by most reports, throwing well. That's a good sign.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Ex-Span-ding the outfield
Denard Span has ben the heir-apparent to Torii Hunter since he was drafted in 2002. So why did the Twins - when they lost Hunter to free agency - sign one OF and acquire two more speedy CF in trades the offseason?
Maybe because they felt Span is not ready yet, and wanted to have some true competition for the job come spring.
That they have.
Craig Monroe, the outfielder they signed, is more of a bench player. His threat is the homerun, not catching potential home run balls at the fence like Hunter and former Twin Kirby Puckett used to do.
The three potential center fielders are Span, Jason Pridie - acquired from the Rays in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade; and Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.
Lets look at them (2007 Stats from Baseball-Reference.com):
Name Level AB R H RBI BB SO BA OBP SB CF/games RF/Game
Span AAA 487 59 130 55 40 90 .267 .323 25 134 2.69
Pridie AA-AAA 524 89 159 66 36 92 .303 .352 26 101 2.53
Gomez A+-AAA 153 25 42 13 16 27 .275 .355 19 36 2.94
Gomez Mets 125 14 29 12 8 27 .232 .288 12 4 1.00
Monroe Det/ChC 392 53 86 59 26 107 .219 .268 0 7 2.31
Pridie had the most at-bats, the most stolen bases and the highest batting average. Span played the most games in CF. Gomez had the highest Range Factor per game, albeit in 36 AAA games. Gomez probably has the greatest potential, but whether he's ready right now, is a good question. He only played 40 games in CF last year (36+4).
If the Twins are looking for a pure defensive CF, Span and Gomez have the highest range factors. Looking for the most experience at the position? Span and Pridie are tops there. Looking for a pure leadoff hitter? Pridie and Gomez fit the bill with the highest averages and on base percentage.
Yes, Gomez was in the Major Leagues last year, but most of that time he was in elsewhere in the OF; he only spent four games in CF. Monroe spent 7 games there in 2007 - he's been in CF for 77 of his 720 ML games. Monroe has never been a good CF; he just doesn't have the range needed.
One more twist: Span and Pridie are left-handed batters; Monroe and Gomez are righties. If they do equally well in spring training, it's unlikely Pridie and Span would come up together, since both are left handed batters.
So if Monroe can't do the everyday job, it falls between Span, Gomez and Pridie. Pridie has the edge for now, but Gomez will eclipse him when he gets more experience in the field.
My prediction is unchanged. Pridie and Gomez will go north, and come close to platooning in the position. Monroe - if he makes the team, will be on the bench.
And Span will still be chomping at the bit for the Major League CF job.
Maybe because they felt Span is not ready yet, and wanted to have some true competition for the job come spring.
That they have.
Craig Monroe, the outfielder they signed, is more of a bench player. His threat is the homerun, not catching potential home run balls at the fence like Hunter and former Twin Kirby Puckett used to do.
The three potential center fielders are Span, Jason Pridie - acquired from the Rays in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade; and Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.
Lets look at them (2007 Stats from Baseball-Reference.com):
Name Level AB R H RBI BB SO BA OBP SB CF/games RF/Game
Span AAA 487 59 130 55 40 90 .267 .323 25 134 2.69
Pridie AA-AAA 524 89 159 66 36 92 .303 .352 26 101 2.53
Gomez A+-AAA 153 25 42 13 16 27 .275 .355 19 36 2.94
Gomez Mets 125 14 29 12 8 27 .232 .288 12 4 1.00
Monroe Det/ChC 392 53 86 59 26 107 .219 .268 0 7 2.31
Pridie had the most at-bats, the most stolen bases and the highest batting average. Span played the most games in CF. Gomez had the highest Range Factor per game, albeit in 36 AAA games. Gomez probably has the greatest potential, but whether he's ready right now, is a good question. He only played 40 games in CF last year (36+4).
If the Twins are looking for a pure defensive CF, Span and Gomez have the highest range factors. Looking for the most experience at the position? Span and Pridie are tops there. Looking for a pure leadoff hitter? Pridie and Gomez fit the bill with the highest averages and on base percentage.
Yes, Gomez was in the Major Leagues last year, but most of that time he was in elsewhere in the OF; he only spent four games in CF. Monroe spent 7 games there in 2007 - he's been in CF for 77 of his 720 ML games. Monroe has never been a good CF; he just doesn't have the range needed.
One more twist: Span and Pridie are left-handed batters; Monroe and Gomez are righties. If they do equally well in spring training, it's unlikely Pridie and Span would come up together, since both are left handed batters.
So if Monroe can't do the everyday job, it falls between Span, Gomez and Pridie. Pridie has the edge for now, but Gomez will eclipse him when he gets more experience in the field.
My prediction is unchanged. Pridie and Gomez will go north, and come close to platooning in the position. Monroe - if he makes the team, will be on the bench.
And Span will still be chomping at the bit for the Major League CF job.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Who leads off?
The question of who leads off for the Minnesota Twins in 2008 is yet to be answered.
Conventional wisdom says it's someone who has speed, can bunt, and who can get on base. Among those still on the roster from 2007, Joe Mauer has the highest OBP among regulars, at .382, and he scored 62 runs, and stole seven bases. In 2006, when he won the batting title, his OBP was .429. (By the way, Hall of Famer Rod Carew eclipsed that twice in his career, in 1974 at .433 and in 1977, when he batted .388 and had a .449 OBP. Astounding).
Other OBP in 2007: Michael Cuddyer, .356; Michael Redmond, .346; Justin Morneau, .343; and Jason Kubel, .335.
Among the new Twins, Jason Pridie had a .375 OBP for AAA Durham in 245 ab; it was .331 for AA in 279 at bats. Pridie was also good at scoring runs at AAA: he scored 47 times in 245 at bats (19 percent of the time).
Carlos Gomez put up similar numbers, at AAA, .363 OBP, 24 runs scored in 140 AB (17 percent). Gomez can also steal bases: 17 in AAA last year. However, he struggled in the Major Leagues last year, he hit .232 with a .288 OBP. He may need more time in AAA, although he is a speedster on the bases. He had 12 stolen bases in 125 ML AB.
Among the other newcomers, 2B Brendan Harris had an OBP of .343 last year, with 4 stolen bases; Mike Lamb had a .366 OBP, but with no stolen bases; Delmon Young had an OBP of .316 with 10 SB.
Clearly, the choice is between Pridie, Gomez and Mauer. Conventional wisdom might say to give it to the speedster Gomez and let him fly; my inclination is to give it to Pridie. At AA and AAA (combined) Pridie scored 89 runs. Betwen the minor leagues and the majors, Gomex scored 39 runs last year. Mauer scored 62 for the Twins.
Some point to Mauer, and suggest he should be the lead-off hitter. He is our best hitter. He should be in the No. 2 or 3 spot, getting Pridie around the basepaths to score.
Pridie should have the CF job, with Gomez having the fourth OF spot, letting him learn from the likes of Cuddyer and Young.
And Pridie should lead off. Give him the chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues. His record shows he deserves it.
Conventional wisdom says it's someone who has speed, can bunt, and who can get on base. Among those still on the roster from 2007, Joe Mauer has the highest OBP among regulars, at .382, and he scored 62 runs, and stole seven bases. In 2006, when he won the batting title, his OBP was .429. (By the way, Hall of Famer Rod Carew eclipsed that twice in his career, in 1974 at .433 and in 1977, when he batted .388 and had a .449 OBP. Astounding).
Other OBP in 2007: Michael Cuddyer, .356; Michael Redmond, .346; Justin Morneau, .343; and Jason Kubel, .335.
Among the new Twins, Jason Pridie had a .375 OBP for AAA Durham in 245 ab; it was .331 for AA in 279 at bats. Pridie was also good at scoring runs at AAA: he scored 47 times in 245 at bats (19 percent of the time).
Carlos Gomez put up similar numbers, at AAA, .363 OBP, 24 runs scored in 140 AB (17 percent). Gomez can also steal bases: 17 in AAA last year. However, he struggled in the Major Leagues last year, he hit .232 with a .288 OBP. He may need more time in AAA, although he is a speedster on the bases. He had 12 stolen bases in 125 ML AB.
Among the other newcomers, 2B Brendan Harris had an OBP of .343 last year, with 4 stolen bases; Mike Lamb had a .366 OBP, but with no stolen bases; Delmon Young had an OBP of .316 with 10 SB.
Clearly, the choice is between Pridie, Gomez and Mauer. Conventional wisdom might say to give it to the speedster Gomez and let him fly; my inclination is to give it to Pridie. At AA and AAA (combined) Pridie scored 89 runs. Betwen the minor leagues and the majors, Gomex scored 39 runs last year. Mauer scored 62 for the Twins.
Some point to Mauer, and suggest he should be the lead-off hitter. He is our best hitter. He should be in the No. 2 or 3 spot, getting Pridie around the basepaths to score.
Pridie should have the CF job, with Gomez having the fourth OF spot, letting him learn from the likes of Cuddyer and Young.
And Pridie should lead off. Give him the chance to show what he can do in the Major Leagues. His record shows he deserves it.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Blogger Blottings
• Spring training officially starts on Sunday, when pitchers and catchers report for duty. One Twin won't be there: Francisco Liriano, who's having visa problems and may be delayed by a week or more.
That's too bad. I'm sure he'll make a big splash when he arrives.
• In my roster predictions, I have barely mentioned any of the spring training invitees - including Zach Day and Randy Keisler - both signed to minor league contracts and invited to ST. I don't expect these two - or any of the others on the invitee list - to make the final cut.
• I believe with all of the outfielders the Twins have: Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez, that the Twins will NOT keep Craig Monroe. The ONLY scenario where I see the Twins keeping Monroe (other than by more trades or by injury) is if he really hits well this spring, and the Twins leave Gomez or Pridie at AAA. Gomez may need more seasoning at AAA; but Pridie - I believe - is ready for the big show. He did really well last year in AAA. Gomez may be the CF of the future, but Pridie is the CF for the now. Keeping both - and letting them platoon - makes more sense than keeping Monroe and his $3.82 million salary. if they release him, they pay him only around $600,000, depending on the timing of the decision.
• Who will lead off the starting rotation? My choice would be Kevin Slowey. But I suspect it will be Scott Baker.
That's too bad. I'm sure he'll make a big splash when he arrives.
• In my roster predictions, I have barely mentioned any of the spring training invitees - including Zach Day and Randy Keisler - both signed to minor league contracts and invited to ST. I don't expect these two - or any of the others on the invitee list - to make the final cut.
• I believe with all of the outfielders the Twins have: Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez, that the Twins will NOT keep Craig Monroe. The ONLY scenario where I see the Twins keeping Monroe (other than by more trades or by injury) is if he really hits well this spring, and the Twins leave Gomez or Pridie at AAA. Gomez may need more seasoning at AAA; but Pridie - I believe - is ready for the big show. He did really well last year in AAA. Gomez may be the CF of the future, but Pridie is the CF for the now. Keeping both - and letting them platoon - makes more sense than keeping Monroe and his $3.82 million salary. if they release him, they pay him only around $600,000, depending on the timing of the decision.
• Who will lead off the starting rotation? My choice would be Kevin Slowey. But I suspect it will be Scott Baker.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Roster alters
With the signing of Livan Hernandez, it's liable to have some effect on the Twins' 25-man roster.
Philip Humber will likely be the odd-man out, among the Twins' starters. Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are locks to make the starting five, as is Hernandez. If Liriano needs to be stretched out more, or any of them falter, Humber would be waiting to fill the spot.
Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Kevin Mulvey are the next tier of candidates. Any of them could easily step onto the Major League pitching mound this summer.
Another question with his signing is on the 40-man roster. Right now, as of 2/14/08, the Twins have 41 players on their 40-man roster. That includes Jose Mijares who was injured in a car accident and will not be pitching for several months. He will undoubtedly be put on the 60-day disabled list.
Another roster question circles around Craig Monroe, especially if he falters this spring. Will the Twins bring him north, or cut him loose and save a bunch of money? Right now, some expect him to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel. But Monroe has to prove his worth this spring. otherwise, the Twins won't keep him around.
Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez will compete for the CF spot. I expect both to stay with the club, but Gomez may need some more seasoning at AAA. If Gomez does not come north, then either Denard Span or Garrett Jones will stay with the club as its fifth outfielder, or - more likely - Alexi Casilla or Brian Buscher would get a shot as another reserve infielder.
Ah springtime. It's a great time of year.
Philip Humber will likely be the odd-man out, among the Twins' starters. Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser are locks to make the starting five, as is Hernandez. If Liriano needs to be stretched out more, or any of them falter, Humber would be waiting to fill the spot.
Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Kevin Mulvey are the next tier of candidates. Any of them could easily step onto the Major League pitching mound this summer.
Another question with his signing is on the 40-man roster. Right now, as of 2/14/08, the Twins have 41 players on their 40-man roster. That includes Jose Mijares who was injured in a car accident and will not be pitching for several months. He will undoubtedly be put on the 60-day disabled list.
Another roster question circles around Craig Monroe, especially if he falters this spring. Will the Twins bring him north, or cut him loose and save a bunch of money? Right now, some expect him to platoon at DH with Jason Kubel. But Monroe has to prove his worth this spring. otherwise, the Twins won't keep him around.
Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez will compete for the CF spot. I expect both to stay with the club, but Gomez may need some more seasoning at AAA. If Gomez does not come north, then either Denard Span or Garrett Jones will stay with the club as its fifth outfielder, or - more likely - Alexi Casilla or Brian Buscher would get a shot as another reserve infielder.
Ah springtime. It's a great time of year.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Twins Livan Large...
The Minnesota Twins signed Livan Hernandez Tuesday to a $5 million contract. With that, they get the use of a veteran pitcher for a year.
I've been pushing and pushing for the Twins to sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher. Now that they've done that, I guess it's not time to complain but...
• On the negative side, Hernandez had a WHIP of 1.595 in 2007 in the National League. That's a lot of walks and hits. He was second in the NL for giving up home runs. His ERA was 4.93, just over the NL average of 4.70. But in the AL, he'll be facing DHs instead of pitchers (although I don't give this a lot of stock - later in games they face PHs instead of pitchers).
• On the positive side, Hernandez eats innings - for breafast, lunch and dinner. He's pitched more than 199 innings every season since 1998. He's reliable; he's started 30 or more games each of the past 10 years. He has a winning record for his career (134-128) and was 11-11 last year. He's better than Silva, who was 13-14 last year.
• Oddity: Hernandez' ERA was 3.94 in April, 3.29 in May and 3.60 in August. In the other three months, it was over 6.00. Maybe he will do well in the climate-controlled Metrodome, instead of in the Arizona heat.
I seriously doubt Hernandez will reach 200 innings with the Twins. Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in the majors, and Manager Ron Gardenhire has a quick trigger on the shower button. But Hernandez - if healthy and productive - will get his starts.
I'm glad the Twins picked up a veteran starting pitcher. Certainly there were not too many to choose from. Hernandez fits that bill. And he's had some post-season success as well.
He may not be Santana, but he'll help the Twins win in 2008, especially with their better defense and offense.
I've been pushing and pushing for the Twins to sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher. Now that they've done that, I guess it's not time to complain but...
• On the negative side, Hernandez had a WHIP of 1.595 in 2007 in the National League. That's a lot of walks and hits. He was second in the NL for giving up home runs. His ERA was 4.93, just over the NL average of 4.70. But in the AL, he'll be facing DHs instead of pitchers (although I don't give this a lot of stock - later in games they face PHs instead of pitchers).
• On the positive side, Hernandez eats innings - for breafast, lunch and dinner. He's pitched more than 199 innings every season since 1998. He's reliable; he's started 30 or more games each of the past 10 years. He has a winning record for his career (134-128) and was 11-11 last year. He's better than Silva, who was 13-14 last year.
• Oddity: Hernandez' ERA was 3.94 in April, 3.29 in May and 3.60 in August. In the other three months, it was over 6.00. Maybe he will do well in the climate-controlled Metrodome, instead of in the Arizona heat.
I seriously doubt Hernandez will reach 200 innings with the Twins. Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in the majors, and Manager Ron Gardenhire has a quick trigger on the shower button. But Hernandez - if healthy and productive - will get his starts.
I'm glad the Twins picked up a veteran starting pitcher. Certainly there were not too many to choose from. Hernandez fits that bill. And he's had some post-season success as well.
He may not be Santana, but he'll help the Twins win in 2008, especially with their better defense and offense.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Depth Chart
The 'Official' Minnesota Twins Depth Chart (on the Twins' website) was updated today, and shows a little interesting information.
Now this chart clearly shows more than 25 players on the team, and has at least three people at each position, except catcher and DH. Now the chart just draws players that are on the Twins' 40-man roster, and can be changed at any time.
The listed starting pitchers are: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Bullpen members are Joe Nathan (closer), Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Glen Perkins.
There are few surprises among the fielders. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe are the three in left field, Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span are listed in CF and Michael Cuddyer, Young and Monroe are listed in RF.
Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher and Nick Punto are listed at 3B; Adam Everett, Punto and Brendan Harris are listed at SS; Harris, Alexi Casilla and Punto are at 2B and Justin Morneau, Lamb and Cuddyer are listed at 1B.
Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond are, of course, the catchers. Kubel and Monroe are listed at DH.
This list has 14 pitchers (12 are expected to come north), and 15 different position players (13 are expected to come north).
Among the surprises: DePaula, who played in 16 games for the Twins last year, and had an 8.55 ERA, losing one game. For Rochester last year, he was 12-5, with a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Exclusively a reliever for the Red Wings, he certainly could be an option for the Twins, especially if one or more of their talented relief staff shows they are not ready after recovering from surgery.
Span in CF. Certainly Pridie and Gomez are likely to start with the Twins, but having three separate players (not listed with the other outfielders) in CF is redundant. I expect the Twins to bring both Gomez and Pridie north, but barring injury, not Span yet.
Some people - including Monroe himself in an article earlier this winter - have suggested that he would be a candidate for CF; Young is another option there. This clearly shows some thinking by the Twins that they are limiting their CF patrollers to the youngsters (Gomez, Pridie and Span), and not including Young or Monroe, except in an emergency.
Buscher at 3B is not much of a surprise, although I expect him to spend another year at Rochester, or to be called up mid-season. He is listed second on the chart at 3B.
Casilla is listed at 2B, but he also will likely not make the team out of ST. It's interesting that he's listed second at 2B; it may indicate he's being considered as another utility infielder for the ML club, but he's not listed at SS - Harris is.
It's also interesting that DePaula and Perkins are listed as the last two among the relievers. Could Perkins be headed back to AAA? I would hope he's coming north.
The whole process of narrowing down those candidates to 25 players starts next week when catchers and pitchers report for duty at Fort Myers.
Now this chart clearly shows more than 25 players on the team, and has at least three people at each position, except catcher and DH. Now the chart just draws players that are on the Twins' 40-man roster, and can be changed at any time.
The listed starting pitchers are: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.
Bullpen members are Joe Nathan (closer), Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Glen Perkins.
There are few surprises among the fielders. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe are the three in left field, Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span are listed in CF and Michael Cuddyer, Young and Monroe are listed in RF.
Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher and Nick Punto are listed at 3B; Adam Everett, Punto and Brendan Harris are listed at SS; Harris, Alexi Casilla and Punto are at 2B and Justin Morneau, Lamb and Cuddyer are listed at 1B.
Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond are, of course, the catchers. Kubel and Monroe are listed at DH.
This list has 14 pitchers (12 are expected to come north), and 15 different position players (13 are expected to come north).
Among the surprises: DePaula, who played in 16 games for the Twins last year, and had an 8.55 ERA, losing one game. For Rochester last year, he was 12-5, with a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Exclusively a reliever for the Red Wings, he certainly could be an option for the Twins, especially if one or more of their talented relief staff shows they are not ready after recovering from surgery.
Span in CF. Certainly Pridie and Gomez are likely to start with the Twins, but having three separate players (not listed with the other outfielders) in CF is redundant. I expect the Twins to bring both Gomez and Pridie north, but barring injury, not Span yet.
Some people - including Monroe himself in an article earlier this winter - have suggested that he would be a candidate for CF; Young is another option there. This clearly shows some thinking by the Twins that they are limiting their CF patrollers to the youngsters (Gomez, Pridie and Span), and not including Young or Monroe, except in an emergency.
Buscher at 3B is not much of a surprise, although I expect him to spend another year at Rochester, or to be called up mid-season. He is listed second on the chart at 3B.
Casilla is listed at 2B, but he also will likely not make the team out of ST. It's interesting that he's listed second at 2B; it may indicate he's being considered as another utility infielder for the ML club, but he's not listed at SS - Harris is.
It's also interesting that DePaula and Perkins are listed as the last two among the relievers. Could Perkins be headed back to AAA? I would hope he's coming north.
The whole process of narrowing down those candidates to 25 players starts next week when catchers and pitchers report for duty at Fort Myers.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
On the edge
I've commented on the Twins roster in the last two posts. But there are some guys who - with an injury to another player, or with a really good spring - could wind up on the Twins' 25-man active roster.
Here are a few:
Brian Bass: Bass may get a shot at the 25-man roster as a SP or RP. He was signed by the Twins last year as a 6th year minor league free agent, and was re-signed this year. He was 7-3 last year, with 10 starts in 37 games, with a 3.48 era and 1.16 WHIP.
Brian Buscher: 3B Buscher made his first appearance in the bigs last year, and it wasn't pretty. Although he can hit, he needs to work on his defense.
Alexi Casilla: Casilla has spent time with the Twins, but would be best served with a little more time at AAA. He'll come up at some point this season, though. He's versatile, with the ability to play SS and 2B. Playing every day at Rochester will help complete his development.
Brian Duensing: Predicted by some to be on the Twins' 08' roster, Duensing is best known now for being the starting pitcher on Team USA in the championship game against Cuba in the World Cup. Duensing needs more seasoning in AAA.
Bobby Korecky: He was the Red Wings' closer last year and posted 35 saves. The 28-year old came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade with the Phillies in Dec. 2003 (The Twins also received Nick Punto and Carlos Silva.) He might get a shot at being a relief pitcher for the Twins this year.
Matt Macri: A 3B, Macri came to the Twins in exchange for Ramon Ortiz last year. He needs more time at Rochester.
Kevin Mulvey: SP Mulvey just came over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He excelled briefly at AAA last year, after being promoted from AA in the Mets' organization. Mulvey might well be a sleeper in the big trade. he could easily reach the majors with a few more solid innings at AAA.
Matt Tolbert: Another good hitter, Tolbert's playing time in the minors is running out. He'll turn 26 in May. The Twins may well call him up, especially if Brendan Harris falters. Tolbert batted .293/.353/.427/.780 last year at AAA.
Tommy Watkins: Called up last year with the Twins, Watkins batted .357 in 28 at bats with the Twins before getting injured. He's also versatile, playing 2B, 3B, SS and OF. Keep in mind that SS Adam Everett was signed to a one-year contract, and that Nick Punto is in the last year of his contract. The Twins know they have some good middle infielders in the minor leagues waiting to take a roster spot, including Tolbert, Casilla and Watkins.
Here are a few:
Brian Bass: Bass may get a shot at the 25-man roster as a SP or RP. He was signed by the Twins last year as a 6th year minor league free agent, and was re-signed this year. He was 7-3 last year, with 10 starts in 37 games, with a 3.48 era and 1.16 WHIP.
Brian Buscher: 3B Buscher made his first appearance in the bigs last year, and it wasn't pretty. Although he can hit, he needs to work on his defense.
Alexi Casilla: Casilla has spent time with the Twins, but would be best served with a little more time at AAA. He'll come up at some point this season, though. He's versatile, with the ability to play SS and 2B. Playing every day at Rochester will help complete his development.
Brian Duensing: Predicted by some to be on the Twins' 08' roster, Duensing is best known now for being the starting pitcher on Team USA in the championship game against Cuba in the World Cup. Duensing needs more seasoning in AAA.
Bobby Korecky: He was the Red Wings' closer last year and posted 35 saves. The 28-year old came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade with the Phillies in Dec. 2003 (The Twins also received Nick Punto and Carlos Silva.) He might get a shot at being a relief pitcher for the Twins this year.
Matt Macri: A 3B, Macri came to the Twins in exchange for Ramon Ortiz last year. He needs more time at Rochester.
Kevin Mulvey: SP Mulvey just came over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He excelled briefly at AAA last year, after being promoted from AA in the Mets' organization. Mulvey might well be a sleeper in the big trade. he could easily reach the majors with a few more solid innings at AAA.
Matt Tolbert: Another good hitter, Tolbert's playing time in the minors is running out. He'll turn 26 in May. The Twins may well call him up, especially if Brendan Harris falters. Tolbert batted .293/.353/.427/.780 last year at AAA.
Tommy Watkins: Called up last year with the Twins, Watkins batted .357 in 28 at bats with the Twins before getting injured. He's also versatile, playing 2B, 3B, SS and OF. Keep in mind that SS Adam Everett was signed to a one-year contract, and that Nick Punto is in the last year of his contract. The Twins know they have some good middle infielders in the minor leagues waiting to take a roster spot, including Tolbert, Casilla and Watkins.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
The Pitching half
I'm predicting the Twins will bring 13 hitters north, and 12 pitchers.
The pitchers are:
SP: Kevin Slowey, Phillip Humber, Francisco Liriano, and the b-boys: Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. That's five.
Two more could make the roster on the relief side, but they're really starters: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins.
Closer: Joe Nathan. The best in the biz.
Relievers: Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
One concern is the lack of lefties: Only Reyes, Perkins and Liriano are lefties. In fact, of the 19 pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, only five are lefies (Carmen Cali and Jose Mijares are the remaining two. Mijares will be on the disabled list, as he was in an accident and is not expected to pitch for several months.)
Of course, it could be worse. The Angels only have two lefties on their roster.
Getting back to the starting rotation, the Twins could easily have five starters who are all right-handers. At most, they'll have two lefties, Liriano and Perkins.
That leaves Cali, Perkins and Reyes as the potential left-handers. Cali has just not been that effective in relief. That's why he won't make the ML roster, barring injury, or having Liriano start the season at Rochester.
There are nine more pitchers on the non-roster invitee list, including four lefties. None will be going north.
As for who will lead off the rotation, my vote would be Slowey. People have been complaining that because Johan Santana is now a Met, that the Twins have no top-of-the-roster starter.
Well, before Santana burst on the scene, the Twins had a good one. Brad Radke. Radke led the Twins for several years, not because he had a fireball of a fastball (he didn't), but because of control. Radke was effective in his control and also in changing speeds.
Some pitchers are just about speed. throwing faster and faster and harder and harder. Sooner or later their arms give out. Others are about control, and being able to throw pitches at different speeds, to keep the hitter off-balanced.
Slowey is like that., If he returns to form this year, he should be the starter on opening day. If Liriano needs a month or so to find his pitching groove after having Tommy John surgery, Slowey will be the top pick.
If Liriano starts at AAA, Blackburn or Perkins will be inserted into the rotation, and Cali could be kept for the relief pen.
It should be an interesting spring, with all these young pitchers - including Humber who just came over in the Santana trade - vying for spots in the rotation.
All of this is speculating that the Twins won't trade for or sign a veteran presence. (Oh, and Zach Day isn't it. He's on the non-roster list, but he's only got 60 starts in the Major Leagues. Not much of a jump from Baker and Bonser who lead the club with 48 starts each).
That's the list: SP: Slowey, Humber, Liriano, Bonser and Baker; RP: Nathan, Crain, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
The pitchers are:
SP: Kevin Slowey, Phillip Humber, Francisco Liriano, and the b-boys: Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. That's five.
Two more could make the roster on the relief side, but they're really starters: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins.
Closer: Joe Nathan. The best in the biz.
Relievers: Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
One concern is the lack of lefties: Only Reyes, Perkins and Liriano are lefties. In fact, of the 19 pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, only five are lefies (Carmen Cali and Jose Mijares are the remaining two. Mijares will be on the disabled list, as he was in an accident and is not expected to pitch for several months.)
Of course, it could be worse. The Angels only have two lefties on their roster.
Getting back to the starting rotation, the Twins could easily have five starters who are all right-handers. At most, they'll have two lefties, Liriano and Perkins.
That leaves Cali, Perkins and Reyes as the potential left-handers. Cali has just not been that effective in relief. That's why he won't make the ML roster, barring injury, or having Liriano start the season at Rochester.
There are nine more pitchers on the non-roster invitee list, including four lefties. None will be going north.
As for who will lead off the rotation, my vote would be Slowey. People have been complaining that because Johan Santana is now a Met, that the Twins have no top-of-the-roster starter.
Well, before Santana burst on the scene, the Twins had a good one. Brad Radke. Radke led the Twins for several years, not because he had a fireball of a fastball (he didn't), but because of control. Radke was effective in his control and also in changing speeds.
Some pitchers are just about speed. throwing faster and faster and harder and harder. Sooner or later their arms give out. Others are about control, and being able to throw pitches at different speeds, to keep the hitter off-balanced.
Slowey is like that., If he returns to form this year, he should be the starter on opening day. If Liriano needs a month or so to find his pitching groove after having Tommy John surgery, Slowey will be the top pick.
If Liriano starts at AAA, Blackburn or Perkins will be inserted into the rotation, and Cali could be kept for the relief pen.
It should be an interesting spring, with all these young pitchers - including Humber who just came over in the Santana trade - vying for spots in the rotation.
All of this is speculating that the Twins won't trade for or sign a veteran presence. (Oh, and Zach Day isn't it. He's on the non-roster list, but he's only got 60 starts in the Major Leagues. Not much of a jump from Baker and Bonser who lead the club with 48 starts each).
That's the list: SP: Slowey, Humber, Liriano, Bonser and Baker; RP: Nathan, Crain, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Half the roster
Here's my roster of hitters/fielders going into 2008:
CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.
1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.
2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)
SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.
3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.
There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.
RF: Michael Cuddyer.
LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.
CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.
The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.
The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)
That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.
Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.
Against a tough left-hander. it could be:
Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS
This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto
Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS
I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.
Looks good.
CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.
1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.
2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)
SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.
3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.
There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.
RF: Michael Cuddyer.
LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.
CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.
The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.
The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)
That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.
Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.
Against a tough left-hander. it could be:
Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS
This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto
Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS
I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.
Looks good.
Friday, February 1, 2008
2008: An exciting Twins season
An old baseball adage is that one key to success is having very good defenders up the middle.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Plum Pitchers
Now that Johan Santana is gone, it might be a good time to look at the Twins' starting rotation for 2008.
Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey will all be competing for starting pitcher.
Newcomers in the Santana trade, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey both spent time at AAA last year, and may be vying for spots.
Nick Blackburn, after his very positive performance in the Arizona Fall League will get a shot, as may Glen Perkins, although he may be relegated to the bullpen again, where he's been effective.
Zach Day, Brian Duensing and Randy Keisler are all among those who will be invited to spring training.
So that's 11 guys. Who's missing? An ace. Someone with more than 60 starts on his resume. We don't have one and the Twins really need one.
Santana and Carlos Silva are now gone. So this starting pitcher ship is without a captain, a rudder, a navigator. We desperately need a veteran pitcher, even if it's just for a year.
Yes, this is a good crew. But they need a leader. Coaches, managers and trainers help, but sometimes you need to go to someone who's suffering the same pain you are or who's experiencing the same problems, or the same joys. Teams need leaders who are on the team, not on the bench.
Charley Walters in the St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested the Twins might go after Josh Fogg, 31, who was 10-9 for Colorado last year. Eric Milton could be a cheaper, but more risky attempt, but it would bring back some memories.
Other potential veteran free agents could include Tony Armas Jr., Kris Benson, Shawn Chacon, Byung-Hyun Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, Mike Maroth and Jeff Weaver. Not a very good crop at this point.
We just cannot let the Twins enter this season rudderless.
Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey will all be competing for starting pitcher.
Newcomers in the Santana trade, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey both spent time at AAA last year, and may be vying for spots.
Nick Blackburn, after his very positive performance in the Arizona Fall League will get a shot, as may Glen Perkins, although he may be relegated to the bullpen again, where he's been effective.
Zach Day, Brian Duensing and Randy Keisler are all among those who will be invited to spring training.
So that's 11 guys. Who's missing? An ace. Someone with more than 60 starts on his resume. We don't have one and the Twins really need one.
Santana and Carlos Silva are now gone. So this starting pitcher ship is without a captain, a rudder, a navigator. We desperately need a veteran pitcher, even if it's just for a year.
Yes, this is a good crew. But they need a leader. Coaches, managers and trainers help, but sometimes you need to go to someone who's suffering the same pain you are or who's experiencing the same problems, or the same joys. Teams need leaders who are on the team, not on the bench.
Charley Walters in the St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested the Twins might go after Josh Fogg, 31, who was 10-9 for Colorado last year. Eric Milton could be a cheaper, but more risky attempt, but it would bring back some memories.
Other potential veteran free agents could include Tony Armas Jr., Kris Benson, Shawn Chacon, Byung-Hyun Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, Mike Maroth and Jeff Weaver. Not a very good crop at this point.
We just cannot let the Twins enter this season rudderless.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Santana gone? For whom?
The Twins traded top-in-the-world pitcher Johan Santana to the New York Mets for four prospects: Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. All that the baseball world is waiting for are physical exams and Santana to sign a new contract with lots of zeros.
Let's face it: The Twins were hoodwinked. But not badly.
According to reports, Santana imposed a deadline for the trade, forcing the Twins to trade him, or play him next year and lose him to free agency. They had to move, and had to move fast. They couldn't get what they truly wanted.
I have no proof of this, but I suspect the Twins were always going to deal with the Mets, for three reasons:
1) The Mets NEEDED him more than the Yanks or Red Sox;
2) Santana himself probably WANTED to go to the Mets, and the National League, where he could be overpowering (not having to face the Tigers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees), and giving him a chance to bat as well.
3) All four teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Twins and Mets) benefit from him going to the Mets – the Mets for obvious reasons, and the others because they won't have to face Santana regularly in the National League - only in interleague play and in the World Series.
That said, the Twins should have worked harder to get #1 Mets prospect Fernando Martinez. But they may have actually preferred speedster Gomez, who is supposed to be faster than the Mets' SS Reyes.
There's an old adage in coaching: You can't teach SPEED. With his speed, perhaps the Twins can teach Gomez better hitting and bat control, to improve his OBP and make him an even better leadoff hitter.
Guerra will still be down in AA or AAA this year. Humber and Mulvey may be in AAA, or could be on the Twins' roster; most likely one at each. So there may be some immediate help, but we won't be able to truly judge this deal for two or three years at least.
What the Twins need now is one veteran pitcher to lead this very young core group of starters. Let's hope they get one.
Let's face it: The Twins were hoodwinked. But not badly.
According to reports, Santana imposed a deadline for the trade, forcing the Twins to trade him, or play him next year and lose him to free agency. They had to move, and had to move fast. They couldn't get what they truly wanted.
I have no proof of this, but I suspect the Twins were always going to deal with the Mets, for three reasons:
1) The Mets NEEDED him more than the Yanks or Red Sox;
2) Santana himself probably WANTED to go to the Mets, and the National League, where he could be overpowering (not having to face the Tigers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees), and giving him a chance to bat as well.
3) All four teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Twins and Mets) benefit from him going to the Mets – the Mets for obvious reasons, and the others because they won't have to face Santana regularly in the National League - only in interleague play and in the World Series.
That said, the Twins should have worked harder to get #1 Mets prospect Fernando Martinez. But they may have actually preferred speedster Gomez, who is supposed to be faster than the Mets' SS Reyes.
There's an old adage in coaching: You can't teach SPEED. With his speed, perhaps the Twins can teach Gomez better hitting and bat control, to improve his OBP and make him an even better leadoff hitter.
Guerra will still be down in AA or AAA this year. Humber and Mulvey may be in AAA, or could be on the Twins' roster; most likely one at each. So there may be some immediate help, but we won't be able to truly judge this deal for two or three years at least.
What the Twins need now is one veteran pitcher to lead this very young core group of starters. Let's hope they get one.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Monroe in CF? No way
In one of the daily papers over the weekend, Craig Monroe was quoted as saying he wanted to be the Twins'everyday center fielder.
Ummmm, no. Not going to happen.
Offensively, Monroe would have to greatly improve to be center fielder. And defensively, he doesn't have it. According to Baseball-Reference.com, even in the prime of his career, in 2005, he played CF for the Tigers, for 33 games. In those games, his range factor was significantly lower than that of the average center fielder.
He may well play center field a few times this year, but he's not an option for full-time duty there. The Twins would give up a lot if Monroe spends every day in Center Field.
So who is? I've already said that barring a trade or a free agent acquisition, Jason Pridie should be in Center Field for the Twins in 2008. In AA and AAA last year, his range factor in center field (according to Baseball-Reference.com) was 2.57 per game, much better than Monroe's 1.91 RF/Game in 2005. The league average in 2007 was 2.42, with Torii Hunter's being 2.53.
Denard Span's RF/Game at AAA was an impressive 2.69, but his hitting and OBP were well below that of Pridie. That's why Pridie tops my list among in-house solutions.
Among free agents available are Corey Patterson (RF/G 2.63 in 2006, but 2.19 in 2007) or Kenny Lofton (2.39 in 2007).
Among those CF's in trade rumors, Jacoby Ellsbury had a 2007 RF/g of 2.40 in AAA; Melky Cabrera's was at 2.75 for the New York Yankees; Coco Crisp's 2.88 in 2007; and Carlos Gomez' was 2.92 in 38 games at AAA.
Certainly range factor should not be the only factor in choosing a CF. My point here is that while Gomez' RF may be highest among the players mentioned, and that range should be a limiting factor. Monroe doesn't have it.
Cabrera and Crisp may be the best fielding CFs mentioned. Would facing Santana 2-3 times per year offset having a bonafide star CF?
If those are the options, The Yanks and Boston have the apparent best fielding center fielders. A trade with either would be instantly beneficial. That said, long term, the Mets may offer the best overall package, allowing Pridie to make the jump to the majors in 2007, or for Gomez to take over in CF.
Certainly if the Twins were to get Crisp or Cabrera, that player would become the Twin's starting CF. If not, the Twins should go with Pridie, or Ellsbury, if he's acquired.
If, if, if. Right now, it's Pridie, for my taste.
Ummmm, no. Not going to happen.
Offensively, Monroe would have to greatly improve to be center fielder. And defensively, he doesn't have it. According to Baseball-Reference.com, even in the prime of his career, in 2005, he played CF for the Tigers, for 33 games. In those games, his range factor was significantly lower than that of the average center fielder.
He may well play center field a few times this year, but he's not an option for full-time duty there. The Twins would give up a lot if Monroe spends every day in Center Field.
So who is? I've already said that barring a trade or a free agent acquisition, Jason Pridie should be in Center Field for the Twins in 2008. In AA and AAA last year, his range factor in center field (according to Baseball-Reference.com) was 2.57 per game, much better than Monroe's 1.91 RF/Game in 2005. The league average in 2007 was 2.42, with Torii Hunter's being 2.53.
Denard Span's RF/Game at AAA was an impressive 2.69, but his hitting and OBP were well below that of Pridie. That's why Pridie tops my list among in-house solutions.
Among free agents available are Corey Patterson (RF/G 2.63 in 2006, but 2.19 in 2007) or Kenny Lofton (2.39 in 2007).
Among those CF's in trade rumors, Jacoby Ellsbury had a 2007 RF/g of 2.40 in AAA; Melky Cabrera's was at 2.75 for the New York Yankees; Coco Crisp's 2.88 in 2007; and Carlos Gomez' was 2.92 in 38 games at AAA.
Certainly range factor should not be the only factor in choosing a CF. My point here is that while Gomez' RF may be highest among the players mentioned, and that range should be a limiting factor. Monroe doesn't have it.
Cabrera and Crisp may be the best fielding CFs mentioned. Would facing Santana 2-3 times per year offset having a bonafide star CF?
If those are the options, The Yanks and Boston have the apparent best fielding center fielders. A trade with either would be instantly beneficial. That said, long term, the Mets may offer the best overall package, allowing Pridie to make the jump to the majors in 2007, or for Gomez to take over in CF.
Certainly if the Twins were to get Crisp or Cabrera, that player would become the Twin's starting CF. If not, the Twins should go with Pridie, or Ellsbury, if he's acquired.
If, if, if. Right now, it's Pridie, for my taste.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Utility players?
Among the Twins' choices for utility players in 2008:
Infield: Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Brendan Harris and Justin Morneau will be the regulars. Nick Punto, of course, will hold down the defensive side of the utility players.
Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert are among the top minor leaguers. Tolbert will get the nod here, and join Punto at the Major League level this spring. He's just too good to sit at AAA. Buscher will get a shot at the majors sometime this year.
Others have argued for Matt Macri or Alexander Machado. Machado is not on the Twins' 40-man roster. He'll be in AAA, along with Macri. Both are very good players, but are not quite ready for prime time. Machado was injured last year, and will likely be at AAA.
Among the outfielders, we'll have lots: Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will be in the corners, and I predict Jason Pridie will be in Center, unless there's a new CF. Jason Kubel will DH and spot-start in the OF. That leaves possibly two utility OF positions. One will go to Craig Monroe, who will be the prime pinch hitter off the bench. Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald and Denard Span are the three likeliest candidates for the last spot. Jones is out of options and might make it based on that. But more likely, McDonald gets the nod.
The Twins will likely only carry two catchers, Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. In the past, Manager Ron Gardenhire has wanted to use Redmond's bat in the lineup frequently as DH (or as catcher, with Mauer as DH). I think that's less likely in 2008 because Kubel has eclipsed Redmond as the everyday DH, and because trades and signings have brought more capable bats to the team. Mauer and Redmond, barring injuries, will still both get lots of playing time, but infrequently in the same game. Mauer will start two-thirds of the games at CA, and Redmond one-third.
Clearly, with the signings and trades to get Young, Lamb, Monroe, and Harris, and with the release of Jason Tyner, there is a trend here. The Twins are shedding their image as 'piranhas'. These guys have some pop. My guess is that Punto will also be gone after 2008 (second year of a two-year contract). New General manager Bill Smith seems to have a different direction for the Twins. Offensive power is part of the equation.
Infield: Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Brendan Harris and Justin Morneau will be the regulars. Nick Punto, of course, will hold down the defensive side of the utility players.
Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert are among the top minor leaguers. Tolbert will get the nod here, and join Punto at the Major League level this spring. He's just too good to sit at AAA. Buscher will get a shot at the majors sometime this year.
Others have argued for Matt Macri or Alexander Machado. Machado is not on the Twins' 40-man roster. He'll be in AAA, along with Macri. Both are very good players, but are not quite ready for prime time. Machado was injured last year, and will likely be at AAA.
Among the outfielders, we'll have lots: Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will be in the corners, and I predict Jason Pridie will be in Center, unless there's a new CF. Jason Kubel will DH and spot-start in the OF. That leaves possibly two utility OF positions. One will go to Craig Monroe, who will be the prime pinch hitter off the bench. Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald and Denard Span are the three likeliest candidates for the last spot. Jones is out of options and might make it based on that. But more likely, McDonald gets the nod.
The Twins will likely only carry two catchers, Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. In the past, Manager Ron Gardenhire has wanted to use Redmond's bat in the lineup frequently as DH (or as catcher, with Mauer as DH). I think that's less likely in 2008 because Kubel has eclipsed Redmond as the everyday DH, and because trades and signings have brought more capable bats to the team. Mauer and Redmond, barring injuries, will still both get lots of playing time, but infrequently in the same game. Mauer will start two-thirds of the games at CA, and Redmond one-third.
Clearly, with the signings and trades to get Young, Lamb, Monroe, and Harris, and with the release of Jason Tyner, there is a trend here. The Twins are shedding their image as 'piranhas'. These guys have some pop. My guess is that Punto will also be gone after 2008 (second year of a two-year contract). New General manager Bill Smith seems to have a different direction for the Twins. Offensive power is part of the equation.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Jason Pridie: Our next CF
To all of those who are still looking for the Twins' center fielder, stop looking. Jason Pridie is it.
Huh?
Pridie, whom the Twins acquired in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza etc. trade, should be crowned the next center fielder. Fully healthy, he hit .303 in 134 games last year, split between AA and AAA. His AAA numbers at Durham, were even better than the AA: .318/OBP .375/SLG .539/OPS .914.
True, he did KO much more than he should have, but he's young, healthy, a good CF. And he has speed - 26 sb (12 at AAA, 14 at AA),
But on the plus side he has power - 14 hr, including 10 at AAA - also 11 triples and 32 doubles (total, AA & AAA).
Overall, I believe he will be nearly as good a player as Jacoby Ellsbury. (I don't see Ellsbury continuing the numbers he had last year).
And Pridie's here, now, and ready.
Huh?
Pridie, whom the Twins acquired in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza etc. trade, should be crowned the next center fielder. Fully healthy, he hit .303 in 134 games last year, split between AA and AAA. His AAA numbers at Durham, were even better than the AA: .318/OBP .375/SLG .539/OPS .914.
True, he did KO much more than he should have, but he's young, healthy, a good CF. And he has speed - 26 sb (12 at AAA, 14 at AA),
But on the plus side he has power - 14 hr, including 10 at AAA - also 11 triples and 32 doubles (total, AA & AAA).
Overall, I believe he will be nearly as good a player as Jacoby Ellsbury. (I don't see Ellsbury continuing the numbers he had last year).
And Pridie's here, now, and ready.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Power players
The Twins have turned the power corner.
In 2007, the Twins had four players who hit more than 10 HRs: Morneau, 31; Hunter, 28, Cuddyer 16 and Kubel, 13.
Hunter flew to the Angels, leaving three. Then the Twins signed Monroe (12), traded for Young (13), Harris (12) and Pridie (10 in 63 games in AAA) and signed Lamb (11) and Everett (2 in an injury-shortened 2007, but 11 in 2005).
The point is NOT that the Twins are going to be a gonster-macher power threat. They aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox.
The point is, they will be a more rounded power-hitting team - with more players capable of yanking the ball out on occasion. That threat is worth a lot on this team.
Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Monroe, Young, Harris and Lamb gives them seven players - potentially daily in the lineup - with that power threat. I'll take that over four any day.
In 2007, the Twins had four players who hit more than 10 HRs: Morneau, 31; Hunter, 28, Cuddyer 16 and Kubel, 13.
Hunter flew to the Angels, leaving three. Then the Twins signed Monroe (12), traded for Young (13), Harris (12) and Pridie (10 in 63 games in AAA) and signed Lamb (11) and Everett (2 in an injury-shortened 2007, but 11 in 2005).
The point is NOT that the Twins are going to be a gonster-macher power threat. They aren't the Yankees or the Red Sox.
The point is, they will be a more rounded power-hitting team - with more players capable of yanking the ball out on occasion. That threat is worth a lot on this team.
Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Monroe, Young, Harris and Lamb gives them seven players - potentially daily in the lineup - with that power threat. I'll take that over four any day.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Twins have improved
I think the Twins have improved dramatically for 2008.
Some have criticized Cuddyer in RF, saying he's mediocre, suggesting Kubel take over there.
Personally, I like Kubel at DH and Cuddyer in RF. His arm makes him more valuable as a RF than the average. If either Pridie shows he's got great range in CF, or the Twins pick up another very good CF, Cuddyer's slightly shorter range won't be much of an issue.
I think last year's downturn for Cuddyer was twofold: the injury, and decline in the entire team's BA. When you've got guys like White, Jones, Punto, Rodriguez, Casilla, Ford and Buscher all hitting in more than 30 games last year and all batting below .250, you're going to have problems. (The vast majority of those players won't be in Twins uniforms this spring.) Pitchers then pitch around the Cuddyers and Morneaus of the world.
The Twins also had a big hole in DH - which I believe they have addressed this offseason. Jeff Cirillo played in 50 games last year, mostly as DH or PH. He hit .261 with 2 homers. That doesn't strike much fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.
With new acquisitions Young, Monroe, Lamb, Harris and even Everett, we will be a better team. Of those only Everett failed to hit double-digits in HRs, and Everett and Monroe failed to hit .250.
Yes, we traded away Bartlett and lost Hunter. But Young, Harris and Lamb should more than make up for the loss. And I believe Pridie is ready for the big show in CF. He batted .318 with 10 HRs for AAA Durham in 2007 (63 games, 245 AB).
Sign Santana, Morneau and Nathan to LT contracts, and let's get to spring training!
Some have criticized Cuddyer in RF, saying he's mediocre, suggesting Kubel take over there.
Personally, I like Kubel at DH and Cuddyer in RF. His arm makes him more valuable as a RF than the average. If either Pridie shows he's got great range in CF, or the Twins pick up another very good CF, Cuddyer's slightly shorter range won't be much of an issue.
I think last year's downturn for Cuddyer was twofold: the injury, and decline in the entire team's BA. When you've got guys like White, Jones, Punto, Rodriguez, Casilla, Ford and Buscher all hitting in more than 30 games last year and all batting below .250, you're going to have problems. (The vast majority of those players won't be in Twins uniforms this spring.) Pitchers then pitch around the Cuddyers and Morneaus of the world.
The Twins also had a big hole in DH - which I believe they have addressed this offseason. Jeff Cirillo played in 50 games last year, mostly as DH or PH. He hit .261 with 2 homers. That doesn't strike much fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.
With new acquisitions Young, Monroe, Lamb, Harris and even Everett, we will be a better team. Of those only Everett failed to hit double-digits in HRs, and Everett and Monroe failed to hit .250.
Yes, we traded away Bartlett and lost Hunter. But Young, Harris and Lamb should more than make up for the loss. And I believe Pridie is ready for the big show in CF. He batted .318 with 10 HRs for AAA Durham in 2007 (63 games, 245 AB).
Sign Santana, Morneau and Nathan to LT contracts, and let's get to spring training!
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Santana to stay
Prediction: Santana is the opening day starter for the Minnesota Twins.
Reason: None of the published offers for Santana, from the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox include any kind of established pitcher. The Twins need an established starting pitcher to help their young staff develop. None of the Twins' starters have even two full years of experience - except for Santana.
If they trade Santana, they would need to find a good established starting pitcher via trade or free agency. Many of the best ones are already taken. That provides a problem.
If they trade Santana without getting an established starter - a leader in the clubhouse and on the bench - those young starters will be in trouble.
Reason: None of the published offers for Santana, from the Mets, Yankees or Red Sox include any kind of established pitcher. The Twins need an established starting pitcher to help their young staff develop. None of the Twins' starters have even two full years of experience - except for Santana.
If they trade Santana, they would need to find a good established starting pitcher via trade or free agency. Many of the best ones are already taken. That provides a problem.
If they trade Santana without getting an established starter - a leader in the clubhouse and on the bench - those young starters will be in trouble.
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