Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Twins Livan Large...

The Minnesota Twins signed Livan Hernandez Tuesday to a $5 million contract. With that, they get the use of a veteran pitcher for a year.

I've been pushing and pushing for the Twins to sign or trade for a veteran starting pitcher. Now that they've done that, I guess it's not time to complain but...

• On the negative side, Hernandez had a WHIP of 1.595 in 2007 in the National League. That's a lot of walks and hits. He was second in the NL for giving up home runs. His ERA was 4.93, just over the NL average of 4.70. But in the AL, he'll be facing DHs instead of pitchers (although I don't give this a lot of stock - later in games they face PHs instead of pitchers).

• On the positive side, Hernandez eats innings - for breafast, lunch and dinner. He's pitched more than 199 innings every season since 1998. He's reliable; he's started 30 or more games each of the past 10 years. He has a winning record for his career (134-128) and was 11-11 last year. He's better than Silva, who was 13-14 last year.

• Oddity: Hernandez' ERA was 3.94 in April, 3.29 in May and 3.60 in August. In the other three months, it was over 6.00. Maybe he will do well in the climate-controlled Metrodome, instead of in the Arizona heat.

I seriously doubt Hernandez will reach 200 innings with the Twins. Minnesota has one of the best bullpens in the majors, and Manager Ron Gardenhire has a quick trigger on the shower button. But Hernandez - if healthy and productive - will get his starts.

I'm glad the Twins picked up a veteran starting pitcher. Certainly there were not too many to choose from. Hernandez fits that bill. And he's had some post-season success as well.

He may not be Santana, but he'll help the Twins win in 2008, especially with their better defense and offense.

Friday, February 8, 2008

Depth Chart

The 'Official' Minnesota Twins Depth Chart (on the Twins' website) was updated today, and shows a little interesting information.

Now this chart clearly shows more than 25 players on the team, and has at least three people at each position, except catcher and DH. Now the chart just draws players that are on the Twins' 40-man roster, and can be changed at any time.

The listed starting pitchers are: Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn.

Bullpen members are Joe Nathan (closer), Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, Dennys Reyes, Carmen Cali, Julio DePaula, and Glen Perkins.

There are few surprises among the fielders. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe are the three in left field, Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Denard Span are listed in CF and Michael Cuddyer, Young and Monroe are listed in RF.

Mike Lamb, Brian Buscher and Nick Punto are listed at 3B; Adam Everett, Punto and Brendan Harris are listed at SS; Harris, Alexi Casilla and Punto are at 2B and Justin Morneau, Lamb and Cuddyer are listed at 1B.

Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond are, of course, the catchers. Kubel and Monroe are listed at DH.

This list has 14 pitchers (12 are expected to come north), and 15 different position players (13 are expected to come north).

Among the surprises: DePaula, who played in 16 games for the Twins last year, and had an 8.55 ERA, losing one game. For Rochester last year, he was 12-5, with a 2.90 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Exclusively a reliever for the Red Wings, he certainly could be an option for the Twins, especially if one or more of their talented relief staff shows they are not ready after recovering from surgery.

Span in CF. Certainly Pridie and Gomez are likely to start with the Twins, but having three separate players (not listed with the other outfielders) in CF is redundant. I expect the Twins to bring both Gomez and Pridie north, but barring injury, not Span yet.

Some people - including Monroe himself in an article earlier this winter - have suggested that he would be a candidate for CF; Young is another option there. This clearly shows some thinking by the Twins that they are limiting their CF patrollers to the youngsters (Gomez, Pridie and Span), and not including Young or Monroe, except in an emergency.

Buscher at 3B is not much of a surprise, although I expect him to spend another year at Rochester, or to be called up mid-season. He is listed second on the chart at 3B.

Casilla is listed at 2B, but he also will likely not make the team out of ST. It's interesting that he's listed second at 2B; it may indicate he's being considered as another utility infielder for the ML club, but he's not listed at SS - Harris is.

It's also interesting that DePaula and Perkins are listed as the last two among the relievers. Could Perkins be headed back to AAA? I would hope he's coming north.

The whole process of narrowing down those candidates to 25 players starts next week when catchers and pitchers report for duty at Fort Myers.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

On the edge

I've commented on the Twins roster in the last two posts. But there are some guys who - with an injury to another player, or with a really good spring - could wind up on the Twins' 25-man active roster.

Here are a few:

Brian Bass: Bass may get a shot at the 25-man roster as a SP or RP. He was signed by the Twins last year as a 6th year minor league free agent, and was re-signed this year. He was 7-3 last year, with 10 starts in 37 games, with a 3.48 era and 1.16 WHIP.

Brian Buscher: 3B Buscher made his first appearance in the bigs last year, and it wasn't pretty. Although he can hit, he needs to work on his defense.

Alexi Casilla: Casilla has spent time with the Twins, but would be best served with a little more time at AAA. He'll come up at some point this season, though. He's versatile, with the ability to play SS and 2B. Playing every day at Rochester will help complete his development.

Brian Duensing: Predicted by some to be on the Twins' 08' roster, Duensing is best known now for being the starting pitcher on Team USA in the championship game against Cuba in the World Cup. Duensing needs more seasoning in AAA.

Bobby Korecky: He was the Red Wings' closer last year and posted 35 saves. The 28-year old came to the Twins in the Eric Milton trade with the Phillies in Dec. 2003 (The Twins also received Nick Punto and Carlos Silva.) He might get a shot at being a relief pitcher for the Twins this year.

Matt Macri: A 3B, Macri came to the Twins in exchange for Ramon Ortiz last year. He needs more time at Rochester.

Kevin Mulvey: SP Mulvey just came over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade. He excelled briefly at AAA last year, after being promoted from AA in the Mets' organization. Mulvey might well be a sleeper in the big trade. he could easily reach the majors with a few more solid innings at AAA.

Matt Tolbert: Another good hitter, Tolbert's playing time in the minors is running out. He'll turn 26 in May. The Twins may well call him up, especially if Brendan Harris falters. Tolbert batted .293/.353/.427/.780 last year at AAA.

Tommy Watkins: Called up last year with the Twins, Watkins batted .357 in 28 at bats with the Twins before getting injured. He's also versatile, playing 2B, 3B, SS and OF. Keep in mind that SS Adam Everett was signed to a one-year contract, and that Nick Punto is in the last year of his contract. The Twins know they have some good middle infielders in the minor leagues waiting to take a roster spot, including Tolbert, Casilla and Watkins.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

The Pitching half

I'm predicting the Twins will bring 13 hitters north, and 12 pitchers.

The pitchers are:

SP: Kevin Slowey, Phillip Humber, Francisco Liriano, and the b-boys: Scott Baker and Boof Bonser. That's five.

Two more could make the roster on the relief side, but they're really starters: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins.

Closer: Joe Nathan. The best in the biz.

Relievers: Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes, Pat Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.

One concern is the lack of lefties: Only Reyes, Perkins and Liriano are lefties. In fact, of the 19 pitchers on the Twins' 40-man roster, only five are lefies (Carmen Cali and Jose Mijares are the remaining two. Mijares will be on the disabled list, as he was in an accident and is not expected to pitch for several months.)

Of course, it could be worse. The Angels only have two lefties on their roster.

Getting back to the starting rotation, the Twins could easily have five starters who are all right-handers. At most, they'll have two lefties, Liriano and Perkins.

That leaves Cali, Perkins and Reyes as the potential left-handers. Cali has just not been that effective in relief. That's why he won't make the ML roster, barring injury, or having Liriano start the season at Rochester.

There are nine more pitchers on the non-roster invitee list, including four lefties. None will be going north.

As for who will lead off the rotation, my vote would be Slowey. People have been complaining that because Johan Santana is now a Met, that the Twins have no top-of-the-roster starter.

Well, before Santana burst on the scene, the Twins had a good one. Brad Radke. Radke led the Twins for several years, not because he had a fireball of a fastball (he didn't), but because of control. Radke was effective in his control and also in changing speeds.

Some pitchers are just about speed. throwing faster and faster and harder and harder. Sooner or later their arms give out. Others are about control, and being able to throw pitches at different speeds, to keep the hitter off-balanced.

Slowey is like that., If he returns to form this year, he should be the starter on opening day. If Liriano needs a month or so to find his pitching groove after having Tommy John surgery, Slowey will be the top pick.

If Liriano starts at AAA, Blackburn or Perkins will be inserted into the rotation, and Cali could be kept for the relief pen.

It should be an interesting spring, with all these young pitchers - including Humber who just came over in the Santana trade - vying for spots in the rotation.

All of this is speculating that the Twins won't trade for or sign a veteran presence. (Oh, and Zach Day isn't it. He's on the non-roster list, but he's only got 60 starts in the Major Leagues. Not much of a jump from Baker and Bonser who lead the club with 48 starts each).

That's the list: SP: Slowey, Humber, Liriano, Bonser and Baker; RP: Nathan, Crain, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek, Blackburn and Perkins.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Half the roster

Here's my roster of hitters/fielders going into 2008:

CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.

1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.

2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)

SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.

3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.

There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.

RF: Michael Cuddyer.

LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.

CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.

The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.

The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)

Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)

That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.

Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.

Against a tough left-hander. it could be:

Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS

This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto

Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS

I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.

Looks good.

Friday, February 1, 2008

2008: An exciting Twins season

An old baseball adage is that one key to success is having very good defenders up the middle.

If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.

They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.

They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.

Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.

Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.

New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.

My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.

There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.

That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Plum Pitchers

Now that Johan Santana is gone, it might be a good time to look at the Twins' starting rotation for 2008.

Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey will all be competing for starting pitcher.

Newcomers in the Santana trade, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey both spent time at AAA last year, and may be vying for spots.

Nick Blackburn, after his very positive performance in the Arizona Fall League will get a shot, as may Glen Perkins, although he may be relegated to the bullpen again, where he's been effective.

Zach Day, Brian Duensing and Randy Keisler are all among those who will be invited to spring training.

So that's 11 guys. Who's missing? An ace. Someone with more than 60 starts on his resume. We don't have one and the Twins really need one.

Santana and Carlos Silva are now gone. So this starting pitcher ship is without a captain, a rudder, a navigator. We desperately need a veteran pitcher, even if it's just for a year.

Yes, this is a good crew. But they need a leader. Coaches, managers and trainers help, but sometimes you need to go to someone who's suffering the same pain you are or who's experiencing the same problems, or the same joys. Teams need leaders who are on the team, not on the bench.

Charley Walters in the St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested the Twins might go after Josh Fogg, 31, who was 10-9 for Colorado last year. Eric Milton could be a cheaper, but more risky attempt, but it would bring back some memories.

Other potential veteran free agents could include Tony Armas Jr., Kris Benson, Shawn Chacon, Byung-Hyun Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, Mike Maroth and Jeff Weaver. Not a very good crop at this point.

We just cannot let the Twins enter this season rudderless.