Here's my roster of hitters/fielders going into 2008:
CA: Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. the best 1-2 catching combination in the AL.
1B: Justin Morneau. The former MVP's backup will be regular 3B Mike Lamb.
2B: Brendan Harris, with Nick Punto on the bench. (Punto will back up 2B, SS and 3B. Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert will be at AAA, just a phone call away.)
SS: Adam Everett. Punto will spell him occasionally.
3B: Mike Lamb. Punto will spell him, too, and Lamb will spell Morneau, if needed.
There are only five infielders, for four positions. Punto will play more often than many will like, but that's his role as backup. the limited infielders will accommodate bringing six outfielders north.
RF: Michael Cuddyer.
LF: Delmon Young. He's 'Young' he can learn the new position.
CF: On opening day, Jason Pridie. With the right handers the Angels will be throwing against the Twins, it's likely that Pridie will get the call. But I expect Pridie to share at least some time in Center with Carlos Gomez, who just came over in the Santana trade. A speedster, Gomez will likely be a late-inning substitute runner, or defensive replacement.
The last two outfielders are Jason Kubel (who will likely DH much of the time) and Craig Monroe. Some predict Monroe might not make the roster, but the Twins have shown that if they sign a guy to a Major League contract, they follow through.
The Twins have a lot of flexibility in their lineup. Against a tough right-handed pitcher they can do a lineup like: (* LHB)
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Punto, SS (switchhitter, batting left)
That gives them six left handed batters in the nine positions, with all of the right handed batters protected.
Bench: righties: Gomez, Monroe, Everett and Redmond. Monroe and Redmond the primary PHs, Gomez, the pinch runner, and Gomez, Everett and Redmond solid in the field.
Against a tough left-hander. it could be:
Gomez, CF
Harris, 2B
Lamb*, 3B
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Monroe, DH
Redmond, CA
Everett, SS
This gives them seven right-handed hitters and two left-handed hitters, with both protected with a solid hitter behind them. The bench would be Mauer (unlikely to be out of the lineup too often), Pridie, Kubel, Punto
Against a typical righty or lefty the lineup might look like this:
Pridie*, CF
Harris, 2B
Mauer*, CA
Young, LF
Morneau*, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel*, DH
Lamb*, 3B
Everett, SS
I'm not suggesting that Everett and Punto will be platooning at SS, or that Kubel and Monroe will be platooning at DH, or Pridie and Gomez at CF. Everett, Kubel and Pridie, I'm predicting, will be the regulars. Pridie and Gomez will likely be the closest to being a platoon.
Looks good.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Friday, February 1, 2008
2008: An exciting Twins season
An old baseball adage is that one key to success is having very good defenders up the middle.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
If that's true, and if the Santana deal goes through (pending physicals and the extended contract) then the Twins have made some strong strides towards that.
They ended 2007 with one of the best - if not the best - catcher in the Major Leagues, defensively, in Joe Mauer.
They vastly improved their defense at Shortsop by signing Adam Everett, formerly of Houston to a deal. Everett is also supposed to be one of the best in the business; he replaces Jason Bartlett, who was capable but not sparkling in his play.
Then there's Center Field. Although CF was capably manned in 2007 by Torii Hunter, who is now with the Angels, there are at least three Twins (assuming the Santana deal goes through) who could potentially fit the bill.
Denard Span was at AAA last year, but did not hit that well. He batted .267 with a .323 on base percentage.
New Twin Carlos Gomez is supposed to be speedy, with an above-average arm, and very good defense. In AAA last year, Gomez batted .275 with a .355 OBP. He also played 58 games with the Mets last year, hitting .232 with a .288 OBP.
My pick, also a new Twin, Jason Pridie, batted .318 with a .375 OBP also in AAA. He's also supposed to be good defensively. (probably not as good as Gomez, but would more than make up for it with his bat). Pridie also has more power than Gomez or Span.
There's also the possibility that Pridie (who bats left) and Gomez (right) could platoon the position. This would be a great choice, with one on the bench, ready to come in late in the game, to either bat or run.
That makes a very good middle defensive team. If the old adage is true, the Twins could have a very exciting season in 2008.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Plum Pitchers
Now that Johan Santana is gone, it might be a good time to look at the Twins' starting rotation for 2008.
Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey will all be competing for starting pitcher.
Newcomers in the Santana trade, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey both spent time at AAA last year, and may be vying for spots.
Nick Blackburn, after his very positive performance in the Arizona Fall League will get a shot, as may Glen Perkins, although he may be relegated to the bullpen again, where he's been effective.
Zach Day, Brian Duensing and Randy Keisler are all among those who will be invited to spring training.
So that's 11 guys. Who's missing? An ace. Someone with more than 60 starts on his resume. We don't have one and the Twins really need one.
Santana and Carlos Silva are now gone. So this starting pitcher ship is without a captain, a rudder, a navigator. We desperately need a veteran pitcher, even if it's just for a year.
Yes, this is a good crew. But they need a leader. Coaches, managers and trainers help, but sometimes you need to go to someone who's suffering the same pain you are or who's experiencing the same problems, or the same joys. Teams need leaders who are on the team, not on the bench.
Charley Walters in the St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested the Twins might go after Josh Fogg, 31, who was 10-9 for Colorado last year. Eric Milton could be a cheaper, but more risky attempt, but it would bring back some memories.
Other potential veteran free agents could include Tony Armas Jr., Kris Benson, Shawn Chacon, Byung-Hyun Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, Mike Maroth and Jeff Weaver. Not a very good crop at this point.
We just cannot let the Twins enter this season rudderless.
Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey will all be competing for starting pitcher.
Newcomers in the Santana trade, Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey both spent time at AAA last year, and may be vying for spots.
Nick Blackburn, after his very positive performance in the Arizona Fall League will get a shot, as may Glen Perkins, although he may be relegated to the bullpen again, where he's been effective.
Zach Day, Brian Duensing and Randy Keisler are all among those who will be invited to spring training.
So that's 11 guys. Who's missing? An ace. Someone with more than 60 starts on his resume. We don't have one and the Twins really need one.
Santana and Carlos Silva are now gone. So this starting pitcher ship is without a captain, a rudder, a navigator. We desperately need a veteran pitcher, even if it's just for a year.
Yes, this is a good crew. But they need a leader. Coaches, managers and trainers help, but sometimes you need to go to someone who's suffering the same pain you are or who's experiencing the same problems, or the same joys. Teams need leaders who are on the team, not on the bench.
Charley Walters in the St. Paul Pioneer Press suggested the Twins might go after Josh Fogg, 31, who was 10-9 for Colorado last year. Eric Milton could be a cheaper, but more risky attempt, but it would bring back some memories.
Other potential veteran free agents could include Tony Armas Jr., Kris Benson, Shawn Chacon, Byung-Hyun Kim, Rodrigo Lopez, Mike Maroth and Jeff Weaver. Not a very good crop at this point.
We just cannot let the Twins enter this season rudderless.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Santana gone? For whom?
The Twins traded top-in-the-world pitcher Johan Santana to the New York Mets for four prospects: Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber. All that the baseball world is waiting for are physical exams and Santana to sign a new contract with lots of zeros.
Let's face it: The Twins were hoodwinked. But not badly.
According to reports, Santana imposed a deadline for the trade, forcing the Twins to trade him, or play him next year and lose him to free agency. They had to move, and had to move fast. They couldn't get what they truly wanted.
I have no proof of this, but I suspect the Twins were always going to deal with the Mets, for three reasons:
1) The Mets NEEDED him more than the Yanks or Red Sox;
2) Santana himself probably WANTED to go to the Mets, and the National League, where he could be overpowering (not having to face the Tigers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees), and giving him a chance to bat as well.
3) All four teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Twins and Mets) benefit from him going to the Mets – the Mets for obvious reasons, and the others because they won't have to face Santana regularly in the National League - only in interleague play and in the World Series.
That said, the Twins should have worked harder to get #1 Mets prospect Fernando Martinez. But they may have actually preferred speedster Gomez, who is supposed to be faster than the Mets' SS Reyes.
There's an old adage in coaching: You can't teach SPEED. With his speed, perhaps the Twins can teach Gomez better hitting and bat control, to improve his OBP and make him an even better leadoff hitter.
Guerra will still be down in AA or AAA this year. Humber and Mulvey may be in AAA, or could be on the Twins' roster; most likely one at each. So there may be some immediate help, but we won't be able to truly judge this deal for two or three years at least.
What the Twins need now is one veteran pitcher to lead this very young core group of starters. Let's hope they get one.
Let's face it: The Twins were hoodwinked. But not badly.
According to reports, Santana imposed a deadline for the trade, forcing the Twins to trade him, or play him next year and lose him to free agency. They had to move, and had to move fast. They couldn't get what they truly wanted.
I have no proof of this, but I suspect the Twins were always going to deal with the Mets, for three reasons:
1) The Mets NEEDED him more than the Yanks or Red Sox;
2) Santana himself probably WANTED to go to the Mets, and the National League, where he could be overpowering (not having to face the Tigers, Indians, Red Sox and Yankees), and giving him a chance to bat as well.
3) All four teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Twins and Mets) benefit from him going to the Mets – the Mets for obvious reasons, and the others because they won't have to face Santana regularly in the National League - only in interleague play and in the World Series.
That said, the Twins should have worked harder to get #1 Mets prospect Fernando Martinez. But they may have actually preferred speedster Gomez, who is supposed to be faster than the Mets' SS Reyes.
There's an old adage in coaching: You can't teach SPEED. With his speed, perhaps the Twins can teach Gomez better hitting and bat control, to improve his OBP and make him an even better leadoff hitter.
Guerra will still be down in AA or AAA this year. Humber and Mulvey may be in AAA, or could be on the Twins' roster; most likely one at each. So there may be some immediate help, but we won't be able to truly judge this deal for two or three years at least.
What the Twins need now is one veteran pitcher to lead this very young core group of starters. Let's hope they get one.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Monroe in CF? No way
In one of the daily papers over the weekend, Craig Monroe was quoted as saying he wanted to be the Twins'everyday center fielder.
Ummmm, no. Not going to happen.
Offensively, Monroe would have to greatly improve to be center fielder. And defensively, he doesn't have it. According to Baseball-Reference.com, even in the prime of his career, in 2005, he played CF for the Tigers, for 33 games. In those games, his range factor was significantly lower than that of the average center fielder.
He may well play center field a few times this year, but he's not an option for full-time duty there. The Twins would give up a lot if Monroe spends every day in Center Field.
So who is? I've already said that barring a trade or a free agent acquisition, Jason Pridie should be in Center Field for the Twins in 2008. In AA and AAA last year, his range factor in center field (according to Baseball-Reference.com) was 2.57 per game, much better than Monroe's 1.91 RF/Game in 2005. The league average in 2007 was 2.42, with Torii Hunter's being 2.53.
Denard Span's RF/Game at AAA was an impressive 2.69, but his hitting and OBP were well below that of Pridie. That's why Pridie tops my list among in-house solutions.
Among free agents available are Corey Patterson (RF/G 2.63 in 2006, but 2.19 in 2007) or Kenny Lofton (2.39 in 2007).
Among those CF's in trade rumors, Jacoby Ellsbury had a 2007 RF/g of 2.40 in AAA; Melky Cabrera's was at 2.75 for the New York Yankees; Coco Crisp's 2.88 in 2007; and Carlos Gomez' was 2.92 in 38 games at AAA.
Certainly range factor should not be the only factor in choosing a CF. My point here is that while Gomez' RF may be highest among the players mentioned, and that range should be a limiting factor. Monroe doesn't have it.
Cabrera and Crisp may be the best fielding CFs mentioned. Would facing Santana 2-3 times per year offset having a bonafide star CF?
If those are the options, The Yanks and Boston have the apparent best fielding center fielders. A trade with either would be instantly beneficial. That said, long term, the Mets may offer the best overall package, allowing Pridie to make the jump to the majors in 2007, or for Gomez to take over in CF.
Certainly if the Twins were to get Crisp or Cabrera, that player would become the Twin's starting CF. If not, the Twins should go with Pridie, or Ellsbury, if he's acquired.
If, if, if. Right now, it's Pridie, for my taste.
Ummmm, no. Not going to happen.
Offensively, Monroe would have to greatly improve to be center fielder. And defensively, he doesn't have it. According to Baseball-Reference.com, even in the prime of his career, in 2005, he played CF for the Tigers, for 33 games. In those games, his range factor was significantly lower than that of the average center fielder.
He may well play center field a few times this year, but he's not an option for full-time duty there. The Twins would give up a lot if Monroe spends every day in Center Field.
So who is? I've already said that barring a trade or a free agent acquisition, Jason Pridie should be in Center Field for the Twins in 2008. In AA and AAA last year, his range factor in center field (according to Baseball-Reference.com) was 2.57 per game, much better than Monroe's 1.91 RF/Game in 2005. The league average in 2007 was 2.42, with Torii Hunter's being 2.53.
Denard Span's RF/Game at AAA was an impressive 2.69, but his hitting and OBP were well below that of Pridie. That's why Pridie tops my list among in-house solutions.
Among free agents available are Corey Patterson (RF/G 2.63 in 2006, but 2.19 in 2007) or Kenny Lofton (2.39 in 2007).
Among those CF's in trade rumors, Jacoby Ellsbury had a 2007 RF/g of 2.40 in AAA; Melky Cabrera's was at 2.75 for the New York Yankees; Coco Crisp's 2.88 in 2007; and Carlos Gomez' was 2.92 in 38 games at AAA.
Certainly range factor should not be the only factor in choosing a CF. My point here is that while Gomez' RF may be highest among the players mentioned, and that range should be a limiting factor. Monroe doesn't have it.
Cabrera and Crisp may be the best fielding CFs mentioned. Would facing Santana 2-3 times per year offset having a bonafide star CF?
If those are the options, The Yanks and Boston have the apparent best fielding center fielders. A trade with either would be instantly beneficial. That said, long term, the Mets may offer the best overall package, allowing Pridie to make the jump to the majors in 2007, or for Gomez to take over in CF.
Certainly if the Twins were to get Crisp or Cabrera, that player would become the Twin's starting CF. If not, the Twins should go with Pridie, or Ellsbury, if he's acquired.
If, if, if. Right now, it's Pridie, for my taste.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Utility players?
Among the Twins' choices for utility players in 2008:
Infield: Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Brendan Harris and Justin Morneau will be the regulars. Nick Punto, of course, will hold down the defensive side of the utility players.
Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert are among the top minor leaguers. Tolbert will get the nod here, and join Punto at the Major League level this spring. He's just too good to sit at AAA. Buscher will get a shot at the majors sometime this year.
Others have argued for Matt Macri or Alexander Machado. Machado is not on the Twins' 40-man roster. He'll be in AAA, along with Macri. Both are very good players, but are not quite ready for prime time. Machado was injured last year, and will likely be at AAA.
Among the outfielders, we'll have lots: Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will be in the corners, and I predict Jason Pridie will be in Center, unless there's a new CF. Jason Kubel will DH and spot-start in the OF. That leaves possibly two utility OF positions. One will go to Craig Monroe, who will be the prime pinch hitter off the bench. Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald and Denard Span are the three likeliest candidates for the last spot. Jones is out of options and might make it based on that. But more likely, McDonald gets the nod.
The Twins will likely only carry two catchers, Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. In the past, Manager Ron Gardenhire has wanted to use Redmond's bat in the lineup frequently as DH (or as catcher, with Mauer as DH). I think that's less likely in 2008 because Kubel has eclipsed Redmond as the everyday DH, and because trades and signings have brought more capable bats to the team. Mauer and Redmond, barring injuries, will still both get lots of playing time, but infrequently in the same game. Mauer will start two-thirds of the games at CA, and Redmond one-third.
Clearly, with the signings and trades to get Young, Lamb, Monroe, and Harris, and with the release of Jason Tyner, there is a trend here. The Twins are shedding their image as 'piranhas'. These guys have some pop. My guess is that Punto will also be gone after 2008 (second year of a two-year contract). New General manager Bill Smith seems to have a different direction for the Twins. Offensive power is part of the equation.
Infield: Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Brendan Harris and Justin Morneau will be the regulars. Nick Punto, of course, will hold down the defensive side of the utility players.
Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert are among the top minor leaguers. Tolbert will get the nod here, and join Punto at the Major League level this spring. He's just too good to sit at AAA. Buscher will get a shot at the majors sometime this year.
Others have argued for Matt Macri or Alexander Machado. Machado is not on the Twins' 40-man roster. He'll be in AAA, along with Macri. Both are very good players, but are not quite ready for prime time. Machado was injured last year, and will likely be at AAA.
Among the outfielders, we'll have lots: Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer will be in the corners, and I predict Jason Pridie will be in Center, unless there's a new CF. Jason Kubel will DH and spot-start in the OF. That leaves possibly two utility OF positions. One will go to Craig Monroe, who will be the prime pinch hitter off the bench. Garrett Jones, Darnell McDonald and Denard Span are the three likeliest candidates for the last spot. Jones is out of options and might make it based on that. But more likely, McDonald gets the nod.
The Twins will likely only carry two catchers, Joe Mauer and Mike Redmond. In the past, Manager Ron Gardenhire has wanted to use Redmond's bat in the lineup frequently as DH (or as catcher, with Mauer as DH). I think that's less likely in 2008 because Kubel has eclipsed Redmond as the everyday DH, and because trades and signings have brought more capable bats to the team. Mauer and Redmond, barring injuries, will still both get lots of playing time, but infrequently in the same game. Mauer will start two-thirds of the games at CA, and Redmond one-third.
Clearly, with the signings and trades to get Young, Lamb, Monroe, and Harris, and with the release of Jason Tyner, there is a trend here. The Twins are shedding their image as 'piranhas'. These guys have some pop. My guess is that Punto will also be gone after 2008 (second year of a two-year contract). New General manager Bill Smith seems to have a different direction for the Twins. Offensive power is part of the equation.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Jason Pridie: Our next CF
To all of those who are still looking for the Twins' center fielder, stop looking. Jason Pridie is it.
Huh?
Pridie, whom the Twins acquired in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza etc. trade, should be crowned the next center fielder. Fully healthy, he hit .303 in 134 games last year, split between AA and AAA. His AAA numbers at Durham, were even better than the AA: .318/OBP .375/SLG .539/OPS .914.
True, he did KO much more than he should have, but he's young, healthy, a good CF. And he has speed - 26 sb (12 at AAA, 14 at AA),
But on the plus side he has power - 14 hr, including 10 at AAA - also 11 triples and 32 doubles (total, AA & AAA).
Overall, I believe he will be nearly as good a player as Jacoby Ellsbury. (I don't see Ellsbury continuing the numbers he had last year).
And Pridie's here, now, and ready.
Huh?
Pridie, whom the Twins acquired in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza etc. trade, should be crowned the next center fielder. Fully healthy, he hit .303 in 134 games last year, split between AA and AAA. His AAA numbers at Durham, were even better than the AA: .318/OBP .375/SLG .539/OPS .914.
True, he did KO much more than he should have, but he's young, healthy, a good CF. And he has speed - 26 sb (12 at AAA, 14 at AA),
But on the plus side he has power - 14 hr, including 10 at AAA - also 11 triples and 32 doubles (total, AA & AAA).
Overall, I believe he will be nearly as good a player as Jacoby Ellsbury. (I don't see Ellsbury continuing the numbers he had last year).
And Pridie's here, now, and ready.
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