Thursday, April 3, 2008

A new production stat?

I am a simple guy. I like ketchup, pickles and onions on my hamburger. No mustard or sauer kraut.

In baseball, the ultimate goal is to win games, by scoring runs. Has anyone used run production (runs and RBIs) as a statistic for evaluating hitters? Specifically, here is my new stat - forgive me if someone else came up with this first:

Runs Produced per At-Bat (RP/AB)=Runs scored, plus runs batted in, minus home runs (to eliminate duplication), with that total divided by at-bats. In short, it measures how many runs (usually fractions) will score with each at-bat.

It's simple. It's effective. It works.

Some may argue that this player or that player simply isn't on a team that scores runs, or doesn't have anyone on base when they are up to bat, or is a run-scorer more than an RBI man. That may be true, but baseball is a team sport. The goal as an individual and as a team is to win, to score runs.

If you are doing well, others on your team are doing well, usually. In 2006, several Twins had career years (Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer).

If you come to bat and no one is on base, what's your goal? Either get on base to score, or hit a home run. Obviously, hitting more doubles and triples and home runs helps your cause. But so does clutch hitting (with runners on base). So does higher batting average, usually. So does more walks.

Here are some RP/AB stats for some Twins: (the career numbers include the first three games of 2008)

Career 2006 2007
Cuddyer .260 .336 .278
Gomez .191 .192
Kubel .223 .186 .242
Lamb .249 .270 .238
Mauer .267 .301 .283
Morneau .280 .321 .278
Punto .200 .255 .163

Now for another comparison:
Alex Rodriguez .338 .348 .420

The Twins had Randy Ruiz in Spring training. In 28 at bats, he scored 9 times, had 7 RBIs and 2 home runs. His RP/AB: .500

Unlike a batting average, RP/AB can over short periods of time exceed 1.00. For example, hitters who hit grand slams have a 4.00 RP/AB for that at bat. It can - extremely rarely - even exceed that; walks don't add to at-bats, but they can add to runs and RBIs. Baseball purists might use plate appearances rather than at bats. But at-bats - as a statistic - is more readily available.

This stat shows a better overall productivity rating than average or slugging percentage.

No mustard. no sauer kraut. What do you think?